Demarcus Robinson has been a consistent under performer on receptions props, hitting the over in just 20% of his last 10 games with a brutal -0.4 differential. The 52.7% under ROI tells a clear story of an overvalued receiver whose role has been consistently misread by oddsmakers. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Robinson's reception prop struggles stem from his role as the Rams' third or fourth receiving option behind Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and often tight end Tyler Higbee. The 1.7 average against a 2.1 line reveals oddsmakers consistently overestimating his target share in this crowded receiving corps. His seven-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to meet expectations, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic overvaluation. The Rams' offensive philosophy under Sean McVay typically concentrates targets among top options, leaving Robinson with inconsistent looks despite his veteran presence. His 20% over rate indicates he occasionally benefits from game script or injuries to other receivers, but these instances are rare exceptions rather than the rule. The -61.8% over ROI is particularly damning, showing bettors have lost money at an unsustainable rate backing Robinson overs. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence of this trend even as the season progressed, suggesting coaching staff and quarterback Matthew Stafford have established clear target hierarchies that consistently leave Robinson on the periphery of the passing attack.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Robinson's 20% over rate and -0.4 differential create a compelling case for continued under performance, though the sample size prevents high confidence. The seven-game under streak shows remarkable consistency in failing to meet inflated lines. Primary risk is a potential role expansion if injuries hit other Rams receivers, but his established position in the target hierarchy makes unders the logical play until the trend breaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Demarcus Robinson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Robinson has gone 2-8-0 over/under on receptions props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's currently averaging 1.7 receptions per game against lines typically set around 2.1, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Demarcus Robinson Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Robinson's receptions props. His 20% over rate and seven-game under streak indicate consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers. The 52.7% under ROI shows this has been a profitable strategy, making unders the clear preferred side until this trend reverses.
What's Demarcus Robinson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Robinson is averaging 1.7 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.1. This -0.4 differential shows he's consistently falling short of expectations, averaging nearly half a reception below what oddsmakers project for his role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Robinson under props when he's the third or fourth receiving option and lines are set at 2.0 or higher. His struggles are most pronounced when the Rams have their full complement of receivers healthy, limiting his target share in the offense.