Deebo Samuel's rushing yards props have been severely undervalued, hitting under in 6 of 10 games with a brutal 40% over rate. His 7.1 yard average sits 7 full yards below typical lines around 14.1, creating consistent under value. This represents a strong fade opportunity on his rushing production.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose rushing role has diminished significantly from his hybrid weapon days. Samuel's 7.1 yard average represents a massive 49.6% shortfall from standard lines, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced ground game involvement. This isn't variance—it's structural change. The 49ers have increasingly utilized Samuel as a traditional receiver rather than the gadget player who once regularly saw designed runs and jet sweeps. His 14.6% ROI on unders reflects this market inefficiency, where books continue pricing him based on past rushing production rather than current usage patterns. The trend shows remarkable consistency, with Samuel failing to reach inflated rushing lines in 60% of games. This suggests coaching philosophy changes and potentially Samuel's own preference to preserve his body by avoiding unnecessary contact. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just 2 games) reinforces that this isn't a temporary slump but a fundamental shift in role utilization. Without significant injury concerns forcing more creative usage or specific game scripts demanding ground attack diversity, Samuel's rushing props appear systematically overpriced. The 23.6% ROI loss on overs serves as a stark warning to those betting his rushing production based on outdated expectations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The market hasn't caught up to Samuel's reduced rushing role, creating systematic value on unders. His 7.1 yard average versus 14.1 lines represents a 50% gap that's too large to ignore. Target this prop when lines exceed 10 yards, especially in games where the 49ers project to throw frequently. Main risk is specific game scripts requiring gadget plays, but the consistency of this trend outweighs situational concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | -1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 14.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 23.5 | -10.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 16.5 | 8.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deebo Samuel's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Deebo Samuel has gone under his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 40% over rate. He's averaging just 7.1 rushing yards per game while typical lines sit around 14.1 yards, creating a massive 7-yard gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Deebo Samuel's rushing yards props with high confidence. His 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders indicates systematic market overvaluation. The 49ers have reduced his rushing role significantly, making these props consistently inflated.
What's Deebo Samuel's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Deebo Samuel is averaging 7.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 7.0 yards below the typical line of 14.1. This represents a 49.6% shortfall, indicating his rushing usage has declined dramatically from previous seasons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Deebo Samuel rushing yard unders when lines exceed 10 yards, particularly in games where the 49ers project to throw frequently. Avoid when San Francisco faces elite pass defenses that might force more creative rushing designs involving Samuel.