Deebo Samuel's rushing yards prop presents a clear under opportunity with a 45.0% over rate and -1.8 yard differential from the typical 13.25 line. The 9-11-0 record over 20 games shows consistent underperformance, generating +5.0% ROI on unders while overs lose -14.1%.
Expert Analysis
Samuel's rushing usage has become increasingly predictable and limited within Kyle Shanahan's evolved offensive system. The 11.5-yard average against a 13.25 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. This isn't about talent degradation—Samuel remains explosive when given opportunities—but rather about role definition and game script dependency. The 49ers have moved away from the heavy rushing packages that made Samuel's ground game so dangerous in 2021-2022, instead utilizing him primarily as a traditional receiver with occasional end-arounds and jet sweeps. The consistency of this underperformance across 20 games suggests this is structural rather than variance. Samuel's rushing production has become highly game-script dependent, spiking in blowouts but disappearing in competitive games where the 49ers need his receiving skills. The longest under streak of three games demonstrates how quickly this prop can go cold, while the modest over streaks (maximum of two) show limited upside potential. Oddsmakers appear slow to adjust to this new reality, consistently setting lines that reflect Samuel's peak rushing usage rather than his current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The structural shift in Samuel's role creates consistent value on unders, supported by the -1.8 yard differential and profitable track record. Target this prop in competitive games where the 49ers will prioritize Samuel's receiving skills over gadget plays. The main risk is a return to heavy rushing packages in specific game scripts, but the 20-game sample suggests this is the exception rather than the rule.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 0.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 11.5 | -1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 14.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 23.5 | -10.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 16.5 | 8.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 10.5 | 35.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 12.5 | 7.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 1.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 22.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Deebo Samuel's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Deebo Samuel's rushing yards prop shows a 9-11-0 record across 20 games, hitting the over just 45.0% of the time. He averages 11.5 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 13.25 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Deebo Samuel's rushing yards props. The data shows consistent underperformance with +5.0% ROI on unders versus -14.1% losses on overs, supported by a -1.8 yard average differential from the line.
What's Deebo Samuel's average Rushing Yards all games?
Deebo Samuel averages 11.5 rushing yards per game across this 20-game sample. This sits 1.8 yards below the typical line of 13.25, creating a meaningful edge for under bettors over this extended period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Deebo Samuel rushing unders in competitive games where the 49ers need his receiving skills more than gadget plays. Avoid in potential blowouts where San Francisco might utilize more creative rushing packages with Samuel.