DeAndre Hopkins has been a consistent under performer in receiving yards, hitting the over in just 2 of his last 10 games (20.0% rate) while averaging 29.5 yards against a 36.0 line. The -6.5 yard differential and +52.7% ROI on unders creates a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Hopkins' dramatic underperformance stems from his diminished role in Kansas City's loaded offensive ecosystem. The veteran receiver has struggled to find consistent targets in an offense that prioritizes Travis Kelce, spreads the ball to multiple weapons, and relies heavily on the running game in crucial situations. His 29.5-yard average represents a significant decline from his prime years, reflecting both age-related decline and scheme fit issues. The Chiefs' ball distribution pattern shows Hopkins often serving as a decoy or secondary option, particularly in games where they establish early leads and lean on ball control. The 6-game under streak within this sample suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with how oddsmakers are pricing his props relative to his actual usage. Kansas City's offensive philosophy under Andy Reid has always been matchup-dependent, and Hopkins appears to be the odd man out when facing competent secondaries. The persistence of this trend across different opponents and game scripts indicates structural factors rather than temporary slumps, making the under a mathematically sound approach until the market adjusts or his role significantly changes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hopkins' 20% over rate and -6.5 yard differential create clear value on unders, particularly when his line sits at 36+ yards. The trend appears rooted in role limitations rather than temporary struggles, making it sustainable short-term. Main risk is a potential target spike in playoff scenarios where Kansas City needs to throw more frequently to keep pace.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 11.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 35.5 | 7.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 38.5 | 37.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 36.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 32.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 90.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 43.5 | 35.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeAndre Hopkins's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Hopkins has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 2 of his last 10 games, posting a 20.0% over rate. He's averaging 29.5 receiving yards against a typical line of 36.0 yards, creating a -6.5 yard differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Hopkins' receiving yards props. His 20% over rate and consistent underperformance by 6.5 yards per game creates strong mathematical value. The trend appears sustainable given his limited role in Kansas City's diverse offensive attack.
What's DeAndre Hopkins's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Hopkins is averaging 29.5 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to his typical 36.0-yard line. This -6.5 yard differential represents significant underperformance and suggests his props are consistently overvalued by the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hopkins receiving yards unders when his line is set at 36+ yards, particularly in games where Kansas City is favored and likely to control tempo. Avoid betting when the Chiefs face high-powered offenses that could force shootout scenarios.