Hopkins has hit the over just 44.4% of the time across 36 games, posting a brutal -15.2% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 47.11 yards against a 46.42 line, the minimal 0.7-yard edge doesn't justify the juice. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about DeAndre Hopkins receiving yards props that contradicts surface-level assumptions. While Hopkins averages 47.11 yards against lines typically set at 46.42, this microscopic 0.7-yard edge evaporates when factoring in the standard -110 juice. The 16-20 over/under record translates to just 44.4% overs, creating a significant value gap that has cost over bettors 15.2% of their investment over 36 games. This trend reflects Hopkins' evolution from a volume-based receiver to a situational weapon, particularly evident in his Kansas City role where he operates as a complementary piece rather than the primary target. The consistency of this pattern—with under bettors enjoying a +6.1% ROI—suggests this isn't random variance but a fundamental mispricing by oddsmakers who may be overvaluing Hopkins' reputation relative to his current usage. The fact that his longest under streak reached six games while his longest over streak peaked at just three demonstrates the sustainability of this edge. Without significant injury news or dramatic role changes, the market appears to consistently inflate Hopkins' receiving yards lines based on name recognition rather than current production patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +6.1% ROI for under bettors combined with the 55.6% hit rate creates legitimate value, especially when Hopkins faces defensive attention that limits his ceiling. The ideal conditions involve games where Kansas City has multiple receiving options healthy and Hopkins isn't the clear focal point. The main risk is a potential role expansion if other receivers get injured, but the current data strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 11.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 32.5 | 0.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 35.5 | 7.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 38.5 | 37.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 36.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 32.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 90.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 43.5 | 35.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 49.5 | 56.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 44.5 | 86.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 38.5 | 29.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 42.5 | -2.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 41.5 | 54.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeAndre Hopkins's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Hopkins has gone over his receiving yards prop in 16 of 36 games (44.4%) with an average of 47.11 yards against typical lines of 46.42. His over/under record stands at 16-20-0 across this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeAndre Hopkins Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Hopkins receiving yards props. Under bettors have generated +6.1% ROI while over bettors lost 15.2%. The 55.6% under hit rate provides consistent value against standard juice.
What's DeAndre Hopkins's average Receiving Yards all games?
Hopkins averages 47.11 receiving yards across 36 games, just 0.7 yards above his typical line of 46.42. This minimal edge disappears when factoring in standard betting juice and variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hopkins receiving yards unders when Kansas City has full receiving corps healthy and he's not the primary focus. Avoid when key receivers are injured and Hopkins' target share increases significantly.