Dawson Knox's receiving yards prop has been a consistent under performer at home, hitting just 38.5% of overs across 13 games with a brutal -26.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 18.46 yards versus a 16.42 line, the under has delivered steady profits at +17.5% ROI. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Knox's home receiving production that defies surface-level expectations. While Knox averages 18.46 receiving yards at home against lines averaging 16.42, this modest 2.04-yard edge masks severe volatility that punishes over bettors. The 38.5% over rate indicates books are pricing Knox's ceiling rather than his median outcome, creating systematic value on the under. Knox's role as Buffalo's secondary receiving option behind Stefon Diggs and the emergence of other targets has capped his consistent involvement in the passing game. At home, Buffalo's offensive game scripts often favor establishing the run and controlling tempo, limiting Knox's target share. The tight end's production becomes even more unpredictable in positive game scripts where Buffalo can lean on their ground game. The current streak of one under follows a pattern of inconsistency, with the longest under streak reaching five games, suggesting this isn't just random variance but a structural issue with how Knox is being priced. The -26.6% ROI on overs represents significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.5% ROI on unders combined with a 61.5% hit rate creates clear mathematical value despite Knox's modest average edge over the line. Target this play when lines are set at 16+ yards, particularly in games where Buffalo is favored and likely to control pace. The primary risk is a high-target outlier game if Buffalo falls behind early, but the data suggests betting unders consistently profits over time.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 12.5 | 38.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 22.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 24.5 | 56.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 40.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 23.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 17.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 22.5 | 12.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 26.5 | 10.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dawson Knox's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Knox's receiving yards prop at home shows a 5-8-0 over/under record across 13 games, hitting just 38.5% of overs. This translates to unders cashing 61.5% of the time with a profitable +17.5% ROI for under bettors versus a brutal -26.6% loss for over backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dawson Knox Receiving Yards home games?
Bet the under on Knox's receiving yards at home. The data shows clear value with unders hitting 61.5% at +17.5% ROI. Target lines of 16+ yards when Buffalo is favored, as home game scripts typically limit Knox's target share in favor of ground control.
What's Dawson Knox's average Receiving Yards home games?
Knox averages 18.46 receiving yards in home games against an average line of 16.42 yards, creating a modest +2.04 edge. However, this average masks high volatility that makes overs a losing proposition despite the favorable differential, with unders providing better betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Knox receiving yards unders when Buffalo plays at home as favorites with lines set at 16+ yards. These conditions align with Buffalo's tendency to control tempo and limit passing volume to secondary targets like Knox, maximizing the under's edge.