David Montgomery has been a brutal over bet in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% with a 3-7-0 record while averaging 10.0 yards below his typical line. The under trend shows remarkable consistency with three straight unders currently active. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Montgomery's rushing yard struggles reflect Detroit's evolving offensive identity and his role within it. The 10-yard average deficit isn't just bad luck—it signals a fundamental shift in how the Lions deploy their ground game. Detroit's increased reliance on Jahmyr Gibbs in explosive situations has relegated Montgomery to more predictable, grind-it-out carries that consistently fall short of inflated lines. The 42.7% ROI loss on overs demonstrates how the market has been slow to adjust to Montgomery's reduced ceiling. His three-game under streak coincides with Detroit's playoff push, where game scripts have favored ball control over individual statistical accumulation. The Lions' improved passing attack has created fewer obvious rushing situations for Montgomery, while his snap share has quietly declined in competitive games. Oddsmakers appear to be pricing Montgomery based on his early-season workload rather than his current role reality. The consistency of this trend—only one game reaching his line in the last 10—suggests this isn't variance but a new baseline. Montgomery's rushing floor remains solid, but his ceiling has been systematically capped by Detroit's offensive evolution and the emergence of Gibbs as the explosive play option.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Montgomery's 70% under rate over 10 games reflects a genuine role reduction that the market hasn't fully absorbed. The ideal spots are when his line sits above 50 yards, particularly in competitive games where Detroit's balanced attack limits his ceiling. The main risk is a potential blowout where garbage time carries inflate his total, but the underlying trend remains strong enough to warrant consistent under consideration.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 45.5 | 28.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 58.5 | 4.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 58.5 | 51.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 53.5 | 88.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 57.5 | 37.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 59.5 | 75.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 57.5 | 32.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 54.5 | 73.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 56.5 | 33.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 50.5 | 31.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Montgomery's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Montgomery has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yard overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% while averaging 45.2 yards against lines typically set around 55.2 yards. This represents a -10.0 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Montgomery Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Montgomery's rushing yards. His 70% under rate and -10 yard average differential show the market consistently overvalues his current role in Detroit's evolved offense, making unders the clear value play.
What's David Montgomery's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Montgomery has averaged 45.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 55.2 yards. This -10.0 yard differential demonstrates consistent underperformance relative to market expectations and oddsmaker projections.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Montgomery rushing yard unders when his line exceeds 50 yards, particularly in competitive games where Detroit's balanced attack limits his ceiling. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time carries could inflate totals.