David Montgomery's rushing yards prop at home presents a marginal edge toward overs with a 56.2% hit rate across 16 games. The +7.4% ROI on overs versus -16.5% on unders suggests consistent value despite averaging just 0.3 yards below typical lines. This represents a lean over opportunity in favorable spots.
Expert Analysis
Montgomery's home rushing performance reveals a subtle but exploitable inefficiency in the betting market. While his 58.94-yard average sits marginally below standard lines around 59.25, the 9-7 over record demonstrates that books haven't fully adjusted to his consistency in Detroit's offensive system. The Lions' home environment provides Montgomery with familiar field conditions and crowd energy that translates to sustained drives and goal-line opportunities. The +7.4% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently undervalues his floor, particularly when Detroit controls game script at Ford Field. However, the current three-game under streak suggests recent defensive adjustments or game flow variations that warrant monitoring. Montgomery's role as Detroit's primary early-down back ensures volume, but his efficiency metrics at home show he regularly exceeds expectations through consistent 4-6 yard gains rather than explosive plays. The -16.5% ROI on unders reinforces that betting against Montgomery's home production has been a losing proposition, even when he falls short of yardage totals. This trend appears sustainable given Detroit's offensive line play and Montgomery's proven ability to grind out yards in familiar territory.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Montgomery's home rushing props offer consistent value despite modest statistical edges. The +7.4% ROI on overs combined with his 56.2% hit rate suggests the market undervalues his reliability in Detroit's system. Target overs when lines sit around 59-60 yards and Detroit is favored by 3+ points, as positive game script enhances his volume. Main risk is the current three-game under streak potentially signaling defensive adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 45.5 | 28.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 58.5 | 4.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 58.5 | 51.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 53.5 | 88.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 59.5 | 75.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 56.5 | 33.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 65.5 | 40.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 57.5 | 35.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 58.5 | 91.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 56.5 | 33.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 54.5 | 57.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 65.5 | 85.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 67.5 | 71.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 51.5 | 76.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 82.5 | 109.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Montgomery's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
David Montgomery has gone over his rushing yards prop in 9 of 16 home games (56.2% hit rate) with an average of 58.94 yards per game, demonstrating consistent production at Ford Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Montgomery Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Montgomery's home rushing props. The +7.4% ROI on overs versus -16.5% on unders shows clear value, particularly when Detroit is favored and game script supports rushing volume.
What's David Montgomery's average Rushing Yards home games?
Montgomery averages 58.94 rushing yards in home games, sitting 0.3 yards below typical betting lines around 59.25. This minimal gap creates value opportunities for over bettors despite the slight deficit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Montgomery rushing overs when Detroit is home favorites by 3+ points with lines around 59-60 yards. Avoid during the current three-game under streak unless game script strongly favors rushing attempts.