Darren Waller's receiving yards have hit the over in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0), averaging 46.9 yards against a 41.8 line for a modest +5.1 differential. Despite the positive yardage gap, both sides show identical -4.5% ROI, creating a neutral betting environment with minimal edge.
Expert Analysis
Waller's 50% over rate masks a more complex picture than the surface numbers suggest. The veteran tight end is averaging 5.1 yards above his closing lines, which typically signals betting value, yet the identical -4.5% ROI on both sides reveals the market has been efficiently pricing his props. This disconnect often occurs when a player's production becomes highly volatile—hitting big games that skew the average while also posting duds that kill over bettors. The 2-game current over streak matches his longest of the sample, suggesting neither momentum nor mean reversion dominates his pattern. At this stage of his career with the Giants, Waller's role appears game-script dependent rather than target-share consistent, making his yardage props more about matchup and situation than reliable volume. The lack of meaningful ROI edge despite the positive differential indicates the market has learned to price in his boom-bust nature, leaving little systematic advantage for bettors on either side.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. While Waller averages 5.1 yards above his lines, the identical -4.5% ROI on both sides signals an efficiently priced market with no systematic edge. His production appears too game-script dependent to generate consistent value, and the neutral 50% hit rate confirms the market has adapted to his volatility. Wait for more favorable matchup-specific spots rather than betting the trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 34.5 | 45.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 40.5 | 51.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 36.5 | 32.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 44.5 | 4.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 36.5 | 98.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 40.5 | 86.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-02 | OPP | 49.5 | 21.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 45.5 | 20.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 76.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 45.5 | 36.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Darren Waller's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Waller has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his props. He's averaging 46.9 yards against a 41.8 average line, creating a +5.1 differential that hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Darren Waller Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Pass on both sides. Despite averaging 5.1 yards above his lines, both overs and unders show identical -4.5% ROI, indicating an efficiently priced market with no edge. His volatile production makes systematic betting unprofitable regardless of direction.
What's Darren Waller's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Waller is averaging 46.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average closing line of 41.8 yards. This +5.1 differential suggests he's slightly outperforming expectations, though betting returns remain negative on both sides.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid systematic betting on Waller's receiving yards props based on recent trends. The market efficiently prices his volatility, showing no ROI edge despite positive yardage differentials. Focus on specific matchup advantages rather than pattern-based approaches.