Daniel Jones has struggled to clear his rushing yards props, hitting just 40% over the last 10 games with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. His 26.5 average sits 2.1 yards below typical lines, creating consistent under value despite Minnesota's offensive system change.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a quarterback whose rushing production has declined significantly from his Giants days. Jones averaged 26.5 rushing yards over this 10-game stretch, consistently falling short of books' expectations around 28.6 yards. This isn't just bad luck—it reflects fundamental changes in his role within Minnesota's offensive system. The Vikings have utilized Jones more as a pocket passer, limiting designed runs that previously inflated his rushing totals in New York. His 4-6 over/under record masks an even starker reality: when he goes under, bettors profit at a 14.6% clip, while overs have been a disaster at -23.6% ROI. The trend shows remarkable consistency, with Jones failing to adapt his rushing production to market expectations. Minnesota's offensive line and game script tendencies favor quick passing over scrambling, further suppressing his ground production. Books appear slow to adjust, continuing to set lines based on his historical rushing ability rather than his current role limitations. The 2.1-yard negative differential isn't marginal—it's systematic, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully accounted for his reduced rushing usage in this offensive scheme.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Jones's consistent underperformance relative to lines creates actionable value. Target spots where Minnesota faces strong pass rushes that might force more pocket presence, or games with positive game scripts where they're less likely to rely on scrambling. Main risk is variance—any single designed run or broken play can swing the prop, making this more of a volume play than a lock.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 54.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 25.5 | 1.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 27.5 | 20.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 31.5 | 56.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 33.5 | 38.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 31.5 | 3.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 20.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 32.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 15.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daniel Jones's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Daniel Jones has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with a 4-6 over/under record. This represents significant underperformance compared to the typical 52.4% break-even rate needed for standard -110 props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daniel Jones Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Daniel Jones rushing yards props. The data strongly supports this with a 14.6% ROI on unders versus a devastating -23.6% loss rate on overs. His consistent underperformance relative to lines creates exploitable value on the under side.
What's Daniel Jones's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Daniel Jones has averaged 26.5 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which sits 2.1 yards below the typical line of 28.6. This negative differential indicates books are setting lines too high based on his current role and usage patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniel Jones rushing yards unders when Minnesota faces strong pass rushes or holds leads, forcing more pocket-based offense. Avoid in potential comeback spots or against weak run defenses where designed runs become more likely to inflate his ground totals.