Daniel Jones has gone over his rushing yards prop in 54.5% of conference games (6-5-0 record), averaging 32.82 yards against a 30.95 line for a +1.9 differential. The modest edge combined with positive over ROI suggests lean over value.
Expert Analysis
Jones's conference rushing performance reveals a quarterback whose mobility remains undervalued by oddsmakers in divisional and conference matchups. The +1.9 yard differential over 11 games represents consistent value, particularly when considering the 4.1% ROI on over bets versus the crushing -13.2% under returns. Conference games often feature more competitive scripts where Jones's rushing ability becomes a crucial offensive weapon, especially when Minnesota faces pressure situations or needs to extend drives. The sample size of 11 games provides reasonable confidence, though the modest 54.5% over rate suggests this isn't a slam-dunk trend. What's encouraging is the sustainability factor - Jones's rushing yards aren't dependent on explosive plays but rather consistent scrambling and designed runs that conference opponents struggle to completely neutralize. The negative under ROI indicates the market may be systematically underpricing his floor in these matchups. However, the recent one-game under streak and relatively small sample size warrant caution against overconfidence.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +1.9 differential and positive over ROI indicate consistent market undervaluation of Jones's rushing floor in conference games. Target this prop when Minnesota faces competitive conference opponents where Jones's mobility becomes essential for offensive success. Primary risk is the modest sample size and current one-game under streak potentially signaling defensive adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 54.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 27.5 | 20.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 33.5 | 38.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 31.5 | 3.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 32.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 15.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-02 | OPP | 35.5 | 66.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 37.5 | 5.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 33.5 | 59.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 32.5 | 43.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daniel Jones's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Daniel Jones has a 6-5-0 over/under record on rushing yards props in conference games, hitting the over 54.5% of the time across 11 games from September 2023 to November 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daniel Jones Rushing Yards conference games?
Lean over on Daniel Jones rushing yards in conference games. The +1.9 yard differential and 4.1% over ROI indicate consistent value, though the modest 54.5% hit rate requires selective timing.
What's Daniel Jones's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Jones averages 32.82 rushing yards in conference games compared to the typical 30.95 line, creating a favorable +1.9 yard differential that has produced positive returns for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jones rushing yards overs in competitive conference matchups where his mobility becomes crucial. Avoid after strong rushing performances when lines may be inflated or against elite run defenses.