Daniel Jones has been a touchdown passing disaster, hitting over just 5 times in 15 games (33.3% over rate) while averaging 0.67 touchdowns against lines of 1.23. The -0.56 touchdown differential represents systematic underperformance that shows no signs of regression. This is a strong under lean.
Expert Analysis
Daniel Jones's passing touchdown struggles run deeper than simple bad luck. Averaging just 0.67 touchdowns per game against lines consistently set around 1.23 reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and Jones's actual production capabilities. The 33.3% over rate across 15 games represents one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL, driven by Jones's conservative playing style and limited red zone efficiency. His tendency toward check-downs and scrambling rather than aggressive downfield passing has created a ceiling effect on touchdown production that oddsmakers have been slow to fully adjust for. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating Jones's scoring ability, while under bettors have profited handsomely with a +27.3% return. The fact that Jones has managed just one over in his last stretch, with his longest over streak capping at three games, suggests this isn't variance but rather a reflection of his actual skill level. Even accounting for potential positive regression, the gap between his production and market lines remains too wide to ignore.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jones's systematic underperformance of touchdown lines represents one of the most reliable props in football. The 0.56 touchdown gap between his average and typical lines creates consistent value on unders. Target this prop when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, as Jones rarely reaches multi-touchdown games. The main risk is a potential breakout performance, but his track record suggests betting unders until the market properly adjusts downward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Daniel Jones's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Daniel Jones has gone over his passing touchdowns prop just 5 times in 15 games, posting a dismal 33.3% over rate. His 5-10 over/under record reflects consistent underperformance against market expectations throughout the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Daniel Jones Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Daniel Jones passing touchdowns props with high confidence. His 0.67 average against 1.23 lines creates a -0.56 differential that has generated +27.3% ROI for under bettors while crushing over backers at -36.4%.
What's Daniel Jones's average Passing TDs all games?
Daniel Jones averages 0.67 passing touchdowns per game compared to typical lines of 1.23, creating a significant -0.56 touchdown differential. This gap represents his consistent inability to meet market expectations for touchdown production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniel Jones passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, as he rarely reaches multi-touchdown games. His conservative style and red zone limitations make him most vulnerable when oddsmakers overestimate his scoring potential.