D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 41.2% overs across 17 games with a -21.4% ROI on the over side. Swift averages 64.82 rushing yards against a 56.38 average line, but the consistent under performance and current three-game under streak signal systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props in home games - oddsmakers are consistently setting lines too high. While Swift averages 64.82 rushing yards per home game, creating an 8.4-yard positive differential against his typical 56.38 line, the over rate of just 41.2% reveals this differential isn't translating to profitable over bets. The -21.4% ROI on overs suggests books are factoring in Swift's ceiling performances while underweighting his floor games. Chicago's offensive inconsistency at home likely contributes to this trend, as game scripts can quickly shift away from ground-heavy approaches when trailing. The Bears' home environment hasn't provided the rushing volume boost many expect, possibly due to crowd noise disrupting their own offensive rhythm or opponents preparing more thoroughly for Chicago's home tendencies. Swift's current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of underperformance relative to expectations. The 12.3% ROI on unders indicates a sustainable edge, particularly when considering Swift's role in an offense that can abandon the run when playing catch-up at Soldier Field.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% under rate combined with positive under ROI creates a measurable edge, though the small 8.4-yard average differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target Swift rushing yards unders in home games where Chicago faces quality opponents likely to build leads, forcing the Bears into pass-heavy game scripts. The primary risk is a blowout win where Swift sees extended garbage-time carries.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 58.5 | 53.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 20.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 30.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 71.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 73.5 | 59.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 50.5 | 91.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 53.5 | 73.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 36.5 | 93.0 | +56.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 30.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 66.5 | 61.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 64.5 | 92.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 52.5 | 13.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 59.5 | 80.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 56.5 | 43.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 62.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare D'Andre Swift props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
D'Andre Swift's rushing yards props in home games show a 7-10-0 over/under record, hitting just 41.2% overs across 17 games. The under side has generated a positive 12.3% ROI while overs have lost -21.4%, indicating systematic line overvaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on D'Andre Swift's rushing yards in home games. The 58.8% under rate and positive 12.3% under ROI create a measurable edge, particularly when Chicago faces quality opponents likely to force pass-heavy game scripts at Soldier Field.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Rushing Yards home games?
D'Andre Swift averages 64.82 rushing yards in home games against an average line of 56.38 yards, creating an 8.4-yard positive differential. However, this differential hasn't translated to profitable over bets due to high variance in his performances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target D'Andre Swift rushing yards unders in home games against strong opponents who can build early leads. These situations force Chicago into pass-heavy approaches, limiting Swift's carry volume and keeping him below inflated rushing yards totals.