D'Andre Swift has hit the over on receiving yards in exactly half his games over the last 10 contests, going 5-5-0 with a 50.0% over rate. While averaging 19.3 yards against a 14.6-yard line suggests consistent value, the neutral ROI at -4.5% indicates the market has efficiently priced his props. This presents a lean over situation rather than a strong edge.
Expert Analysis
Swift's receiving production reveals a tale of two narratives fighting for dominance. The 4.7-yard average differential above the line suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his pass-catching ability, particularly given Chicago's frequent negative game scripts that demand more checkdown work. However, the perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record and negative ROI on both sides indicate this edge may be more mirage than reality. The Bears' offensive struggles have created inconsistent usage patterns for Swift, with some games featuring heavy passing work when trailing and others seeing limited involvement when the ground game functions. His receiving yards variance appears tied more to game flow and opponent strength than predictable weekly trends. The lack of available split data makes it difficult to identify specific conditions where Swift's receiving props offer genuine value. The current streak of one under suggests recent regression toward his season mean, but without deeper contextual splits, this could represent either natural variance or a shift in offensive philosophy. Swift's receiving yards props appear to be efficiently priced by the market, making selective betting based on matchup-specific factors more prudent than systematic over or under approaches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.7-yard positive differential suggests consistent undervaluation despite the balanced record. Swift's receiving yards props offer the best value in negative game scripts where Chicago trails early and relies heavily on checkdowns. The main risk is Chicago's unpredictable offensive usage patterns and potential for positive game scripts that limit passing volume. Target overs when facing strong rushing defenses or high-scoring opponents.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 28.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 33.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 12.5 | 10.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 35.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 13.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 6.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 31.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is D'Andre Swift's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
D'Andre Swift has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50.0% of overs. This balanced record shows neither systematic over nor under bias, with both sides producing -4.5% ROI for bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Swift's receiving yards props. His 19.3-yard average significantly exceeds the typical 14.6-yard line, creating a 4.7-yard edge. Target overs in negative game scripts when Chicago needs checkdown options against trailing situations.
What's D'Andre Swift's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Swift averages 19.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a typical 14.6-yard betting line. This 4.7-yard positive differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his pass-catching contributions despite his balanced over/under record.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Swift receiving yards overs when Chicago faces strong rushing defenses or high-scoring opponents that force negative game scripts. Avoid in potential blowout wins where the Bears can rely on ground game and limit passing volume.