Dalton Schultz has hit the over on receptions just 40% of the time over his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. His 3.3 reception average exactly matches the typical line, but the consistent under performance suggests value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Dalton Schultz's reception props present a clear pattern of under performance that goes beyond simple variance. The Houston tight end's 40% over rate across 10 games, combined with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs versus a profitable +14.6% on unders, indicates systematic factors suppressing his reception totals. The fact that Schultz averages exactly 3.3 receptions against a 3.3 line suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his volume, yet the market consistently overvalues his ceiling. This disconnect likely stems from casual bettors overestimating tight end involvement in Houston's offense, particularly given the Texans' emphasis on their wide receiver corps and C.J. Stroud's development as a quarterback. The streak data showing longer under runs (2 games) than over runs (1 game) reinforces the systematic nature of this trend. Without significant injury concerns to Houston's receiving weapons or dramatic scheme changes, Schultz's role appears capped at this current level. The consistency of the under performance, spanning multiple game scripts and opponents, suggests this isn't matchup-dependent variance but rather a reflection of his actual usage ceiling in this offensive system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI on unders creates a sustainable edge, especially when Schultz's line sits at his exact average. The trend appears systematic rather than random, driven by his limited target share in Houston's pass-heavy but receiver-focused offense. Main risk is a potential breakout game inflating his numbers, but the consistency of under performance suggests betting unders when the line matches his 3.3 average.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Schultz's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Dalton Schultz has gone 4-6-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his overs. This poor performance has resulted in a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have enjoyed a +14.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Schultz Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Dalton Schultz receptions. His 60% under rate and positive ROI on unders over 10 games indicates a systematic edge. The consistency of this performance across different game situations suggests sustainable value on the under side.
What's Dalton Schultz's average Receptions last 10 games?
Dalton Schultz averages exactly 3.3 receptions over his last 10 games, which perfectly matches the typical betting line of 3.3. Despite this precise pricing, he's consistently underperformed expectations with only 40% of games going over the number.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Schultz reception unders when the line sits at or above his 3.3 average, particularly in games where Houston's receivers are healthy. His limited target share in the Texans' offense creates the best value on under bets.