Dalton Kincaid's receiving yards props show a clear under bias with just 43.8% overs across 32 games. The Buffalo tight end averages 38.03 yards against a 37.69 line, creating minimal value despite the negative over rate. The under trend offers modest profitability at +7.4% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Dalton Kincaid's receiving yards props reveal a systematic underperformance that reflects Buffalo's offensive identity more than individual regression. The 43.8% over rate across 32 games isn't coincidental—it's structural. Buffalo's run-heavy approach and Josh Allen's dual-threat ability naturally limit consistent target volume for tight ends. Kincaid averages 38.03 yards against lines typically set around 37.69, suggesting oddsmakers understand his role but still overestimate his weekly ceiling. The -16.5% ROI on overs indicates sharp money consistently fades his props, while unders show sustainable profit at +7.4%. His current two-game under streak follows a pattern of volatility, with his longest over streak reaching four games and under streaks extending to six. This isn't about Kincaid's talent—he's clearly Buffalo's primary receiving tight end. Rather, it reflects game script dependency and target competition in an offense that spreads the ball efficiently. The consistency of this trend across different matchups and game situations suggests it's more persistent than regressive, making it a reliable angle for contrarian bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Kincaid's 43.8% over rate and +7.4% under ROI create a sustainable edge against inflated lines. The trend persists across various contexts, suggesting structural rather than random factors. Target unders when lines exceed 38 yards, especially in potential blowouts where Buffalo controls clock. Main risk is a high-target outlier game that breaks the pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 32.5 | 13.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 31.5 | 11.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 35.5 | 47.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 34.5 | 24.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 35.5 | 15.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 48.5 | 24.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 41.5 | 32.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 40.5 | 31.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 38.5 | 52.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 38.5 | 51.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 43.5 | 34.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 38.5 | 47.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 42.5 | 33.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 49.5 | 11.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dalton Kincaid's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Dalton Kincaid has gone under his receiving yards prop in 18 of 32 games (56.2%) while hitting overs just 14 times (43.8%). This creates a clear pattern favoring under bets across his NFL career.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Kincaid's receiving yards props. The 43.8% over rate and +7.4% under ROI show consistent value fading his lines, particularly when they exceed 38 yards in Buffalo's run-first offense.
What's Dalton Kincaid's average Receiving Yards all games?
Kincaid averages 38.03 receiving yards per game against typical lines of 37.69 yards. This minimal 0.3-yard edge suggests oddsmakers understand his role but still set catchable numbers for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kincaid receiving yards unders when Buffalo is favored by 7+ points or facing strong pass defenses. These scenarios increase run game usage and limit the high-target games needed for overs.