Dallas Goedert shows a modest but profitable edge in home receptions, hitting the over at 57.1% with an average of 4.07 versus a 3.86 line. The +9.1% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value despite the small sample size. This presents a lean over opportunity in the right spots.
Expert Analysis
Goedert's home reception advantage stems from Philadelphia's offensive rhythm clicking better at Lincoln Field, where crowd noise and familiarity create optimal conditions for Jalen Hurts to find his safety valve. The 4.07 average against a 3.86 line represents meaningful value, especially considering tight ends often see increased targets in comfortable home environments where quarterbacks take fewer risks downfield. The +9.1% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just statistical noise but reflects genuine underlying factors. However, the modest 57.1% hit rate suggests this edge is fragile and game-script dependent. Goedert's production relies heavily on Philadelphia's ability to sustain drives and avoid early deficits that force them into obvious passing situations where defenses key on A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The recent under suggests some regression may be occurring, and with only 14 games in the sample, a few outlier performances could significantly skew these numbers. The lack of split data makes it difficult to identify optimal betting conditions, requiring careful attention to matchup specifics and game flow projections.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The combination of a 57.1% hit rate, positive average differential, and strong ROI creates legitimate value on Goedert receptions overs at home. Target games where Philadelphia projects to control tempo and avoid early deficits. The main risk is small sample size variance and the recent under streak potentially signaling regression to the mean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receptions prop record home games?
Dallas Goedert has gone over his receptions prop in 8 of 14 home games (57.1%) with an average of 4.07 receptions per game. This translates to a profitable +9.1% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receptions home games?
Bet the over on Dallas Goedert's home receptions props. The 57.1% hit rate and +9.1% ROI provide legitimate value, especially when Philadelphia projects to control game flow and avoid deficit situations.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receptions home games?
Dallas Goedert averages 4.07 receptions in home games compared to his typical line of 3.86, creating a positive 0.2 differential that represents consistent value for over bettors across multiple seasons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dallas Goedert reception overs in home games where Philadelphia is favored and projects to control tempo. Avoid games with high totals or where the Eagles face significant early deficit risk.