Dallas Goedert's reception props present a compelling over opportunity with a 55.6% hit rate (15-12-0) and meaningful 0.4 catch differential above market lines. The positive 6.1% ROI on overs across 27 games signals consistent market undervaluation of his target share in Philadelphia's passing attack.
Expert Analysis
The 55.6% over rate on Goedert's reception props reveals a systematic market inefficiency in pricing the Eagles tight end. His 4.33 average receptions consistently outpace the 3.94 line, creating a sustainable 0.4 catch edge that translates to profitable betting opportunities. This differential stems from Goedert's role as Philadelphia's primary receiving threat at the position, often seeing increased targets when the Eagles trail or face pass-heavy game scripts. The 6.1% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't random variance but rather a persistent market mispricing. Sportsbooks appear to underweight Goedert's target consistency, particularly in an offense that frequently utilizes multiple receiver sets where he serves as a reliable underneath option. The sample size of 27 games provides statistical significance, while the balanced over/under streaks (longest over: 4, longest under: 3) suggest the trend lacks dangerous volatility that could signal imminent regression. The negative 15.2% ROI on unders further reinforces the directional bias, indicating consistent market overvaluation of his floor while undervaluing his ceiling production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.6% hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the margin isn't overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target Goedert overs when Philadelphia faces pass-heavy opponents or potential negative game scripts that increase his target share. The primary risk lies in potential offensive line struggles that force quicker throws away from intermediate routes where Goedert thrives.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receptions prop record all games?
Dallas Goedert's reception props show a 15-12-0 over/under record (55.6% overs) across 27 games from September 2023 to February 2025, with his actual production averaging 4.33 receptions against a 3.94 market line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receptions all games?
Lean over on Dallas Goedert's reception props. The 55.6% hit rate and positive 6.1% ROI on overs indicates consistent market undervaluation, though bet selectively rather than blindly due to moderate confidence level.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receptions all games?
Dallas Goedert averages 4.33 receptions per game compared to the typical market line of 3.94, creating a meaningful 0.4 catch differential that has translated to profitable over betting opportunities across his sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dallas Goedert reception overs when Philadelphia faces pass-heavy opponents or potential trailing game scripts. His role as a reliable underneath target becomes more valuable when the Eagles need consistent completions.