Dallas Goedert delivers exceptional value in conference games, averaging 51.6 receiving yards against a typical 40.5 line—an impressive 11.1-yard edge. His 11-10 over record (52.4%) with zero ROI suggests efficient market pricing, but the consistent yardage differential indicates sustainable upside in NFC matchups.
Expert Analysis
Goedert's conference game performance reveals a compelling pattern driven by Philadelphia's offensive identity against familiar divisional foes. The 11.1-yard differential between his average (51.6) and typical line (40.5) represents genuine statistical edge, not market inefficiency—evidenced by the flat ROI despite favorable yardage numbers. This suggests books are slow to adjust lines upward for conference contexts where Goedert thrives. The tight end's production likely benefits from increased target share when facing NFC defenses that prioritize stopping A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, creating underneath opportunities for Goedert. His three-game over streak indicates recent form aligns with the broader trend. However, the balanced 11-10 record warns against blind over betting. The persistence of this 21-game sample spanning multiple seasons suggests structural advantages rather than random variance. Philadelphia's offensive coordinator clearly utilizes Goedert more extensively in divisional games, possibly due to familiarity breeding conservative defensive coverages that leave the middle of the field accessible to the reliable tight end.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.1-yard average differential provides legitimate value despite the balanced record, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to Goedert's conference game usage patterns. Target this spot when Philadelphia faces NFC opponents, particularly in divisional matchups where offensive coordinators lean on trusted targets. Primary risk lies in potential regression to the mean, though the 21-game sample suggests sustainable edge rather than fluky variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 40.5 | 85.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 36.5 | 56.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 35.5 | 47.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 48.5 | 19.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 30.5 | 61.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 25.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 54.5 | 62.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 170.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 43.5 | 38.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 39.5 | 31.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 42.5 | 47.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 40.5 | 71.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 40.5 | 30.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 30.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dallas Goedert's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Dallas Goedert holds an 11-10 over record (52.4%) on receiving yards props in conference games across 21 contests. While barely above .500, his consistent 51.6-yard average against 40.5 lines creates measurable value for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards conference games?
Lean over on Dallas Goedert receiving yards in conference games. His 11.1-yard average differential above typical lines provides legitimate edge, though bet selectively rather than automatically due to the balanced 11-10 record indicating some variance.
What's Dallas Goedert's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Dallas Goedert averages 51.6 receiving yards in conference games, significantly outpacing the standard 40.5 line by 11.1 yards. This substantial differential across 21 games indicates consistent target volume advantages against NFC opponents over multiple seasons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dallas Goedert receiving yards overs specifically in NFC divisional matchups where Philadelphia's offensive familiarity creates underneath opportunities. His current three-game over streak suggests optimal timing, particularly when facing defenses prioritizing Eagles' top receivers.