Dak Prescott's rushing yards props present a strong under opportunity with a dismal 30% over rate across 10 games. Despite averaging just 0.3 yards above his typical 9.6 line, unders have delivered a robust 33.6% ROI while overs hemorrhaged 42.7%. The data strongly favors betting under on Prescott's rushing totals.
Expert Analysis
Dak Prescott's rushing prop performance reveals a quarterback operating within an increasingly pocket-oriented offensive system that limits his ground mobility. The 30% over rate across his last 10 games isn't coincidental—it reflects Dallas's strategic shift toward quick passing concepts that minimize Prescott's scrambling opportunities. His 9.9-yard average barely exceeds the standard 9.6 line, suggesting oddsmakers have accurately priced his limited rushing upside. The striking disparity between under ROI (33.6%) and over losses (-42.7%) indicates systematic overvaluation of Prescott's rushing potential. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates consistency in this trend, while the current single-game over streak appears more aberrational than sustainable. The Cowboys' offensive line improvements have paradoxically hurt rushing props by giving Prescott cleaner pockets, reducing designed runs and scramble situations. Without significant injury concerns or game script advantages forcing mobility, Prescott's rushing yards consistently fall short of inflated expectations. This trend appears structurally sound rather than variance-driven, as Dallas's offensive philosophy prioritizes arm talent over legs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.6% under ROI combined with a 70% hit rate creates compelling value, though the small 0.3-yard differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target unders when Dallas faces competent pass rushes that force quick decisions rather than extended scrambles. Primary risk involves potential garbage-time scrambling in blowout losses, but the overall trend strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 30.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 1.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 8.5 | -1.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 14.5 | 45.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dak Prescott's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Dak Prescott has gone under his rushing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate). His overs record stands at just 3-7, representing a poor 30% success rate for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dak Prescott Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Dak Prescott's rushing yards props. The 70% under hit rate and 33.6% ROI provide strong evidence, while overs have lost 42.7%. The trend shows consistent value on the under side.
What's Dak Prescott's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Dak Prescott averages 9.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games, just 0.3 yards above the typical 9.6 line. This minimal differential suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his limited rushing upside in Dallas's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dak Prescott rushing unders when Dallas faces quality pass rushes that force quick decisions. Avoid unders in potential blowout losses where garbage-time scrambling could inflate his rushing totals unexpectedly.