Dak Prescott's rushing yards props offer clear under value, hitting just 42.3% overs across 26 games with an 11-15-0 record. The Cowboys quarterback averages only 13.12 rushing yards against an 11.69 average line, creating consistent under opportunities with +10.1% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Dak Prescott's rushing profile reflects the modern pocket passer reality - minimal designed runs and conservative scrambling tendencies. His 13.12 yards per game average barely exceeds the typical 11.69 line, but the 42.3% over rate reveals books consistently overestimating his mobility. The +1.4 yard differential seems modest, yet it's significant for a stat with such low baselines and tight distributions. Prescott's rushing comes primarily from broken plays and short scrambles rather than designed quarterback runs, making his yardage highly dependent on pass protection quality and game script. When Dallas controls games, Prescott stays in the pocket. When trailing, his rushing attempts often come in desperation situations that don't accumulate significant yardage. The -19.2% ROI on overs versus +10.1% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Books appear to price in occasional explosive scrambles that rarely materialize, while undervaluing Prescott's pocket-first mentality. His longest under streak of five games highlights the consistency of this trend. The lack of designed quarterback runs in Dallas's offensive system further supports the under thesis, as Prescott's rushing yards depend entirely on circumstantial scrambles rather than systematic opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.3% over rate and +10.1% under ROI provide solid evidence for consistent under value in Prescott's rushing props. Target unders when lines exceed 12 yards, particularly in games where Dallas projects to lead or face quality pass rushes that keep Prescott contained. Main risk involves garbage-time scrambles inflating totals in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 30.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 1.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 8.5 | -1.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 12.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 3.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 14.5 | 45.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 0.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 16.5 | 5.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 25.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 27.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 12.5 | 23.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dak Prescott's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Dak Prescott's rushing yards prop record stands at 11-15-0 over/under across 26 games, hitting just 42.3% overs. This represents a clear pattern of books overestimating his rushing production in the Cowboys' pocket-passing offense.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dak Prescott Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Dak Prescott's rushing yards props. The 42.3% over rate and +10.1% under ROI demonstrate consistent value on the under side, particularly when lines exceed 12 yards in his pocket-first offensive system.
What's Dak Prescott's average Rushing Yards all games?
Dak Prescott averages 13.12 rushing yards per game against an average line of 11.69 yards. While he slightly exceeds the typical line by 1.4 yards, the low over rate reveals this modest edge rarely translates to prop victories.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dak Prescott rushing unders when lines exceed 12 yards, especially in games where Dallas projects to lead or faces strong pass rushes. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage-time scrambles could inflate his rushing totals.