Cooper Kupp's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors over his last 10 games, hitting at just 30% with a brutal -1.8 average differential versus the line. The Rams receiver is averaging only 3.9 receptions against lines typically set around 5.7, creating significant value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Cooper Kupp's dramatic underperformance in receptions reflects a perfect storm of factors plaguing the Rams' passing attack. The 3.9 average against 5.7 lines represents a massive 31.6% shortfall, suggesting oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to his diminished role. Kupp's target share has likely decreased due to the emergence of other receivers and the team's shifting offensive philosophy under different game scripts. The Rams' 3-7 record during this span indicates they've been playing from behind frequently, which should theoretically boost passing volume, yet Kupp hasn't capitalized. This suggests either injury limitations, defensive attention, or systematic changes in how Los Angeles deploys their veteran receiver. The six-game under streak followed by just one over indicates the market may still be overvaluing Kupp's past production. His reception totals appear more volatile and game-script dependent than his historical baseline suggests. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has mispriced his props upward, while the +33.6% under ROI shows the sustainability of this edge. Given his age and the team's struggles, this trend appears more structural than cyclical.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with the substantial -1.8 differential creates a clear edge, though regression risk exists given Kupp's talent level. Target unders when lines exceed 5.0 receptions, particularly in games where the Rams are favored and likely to control pace. The primary risk is a single explosive game resetting market expectations and tightening future lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Cooper Kupp has gone under his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games (30% over rate), averaging just 3.9 receptions against typical lines around 5.7, creating a significant -1.8 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp's receptions props. The 70% under success rate and -1.8 average differential provide clear value, especially when lines are set above 5.0 receptions in his current diminished role.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receptions last 10 games?
Cooper Kupp is averaging 3.9 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 5.7, representing a substantial 1.8-reception shortfall that consistently creates value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp reception unders when lines exceed 5.0, particularly in games where the Rams are favored to control pace or facing strong pass defenses that limit his target opportunities.