Cooper Kupp's reception props present a clear under opportunity with just 34.6% overs across 26 games since October 2023. His 5.12 average falls nearly a full reception short of typical 6.04 lines, generating +24.8% ROI on unders while overs lose at -33.9%.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fundamental market inefficiency in Cooper Kupp reception pricing. Books consistently hang lines around 6.04 receptions, yet Kupp averages just 5.12 per game over this 26-game sample. This 0.9 reception gap isn't marginal—it represents a structural disconnect between perception and reality. The 34.6% over rate indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Several factors drive this trend. Kupp's target share has declined from his 2021 peak as the Rams diversified their passing attack around Puka Nacua and other weapons. His role has shifted more toward intermediate routes rather than the high-volume underneath work that inflated his reception totals in previous seasons. Additionally, the Rams' offensive pace and game script tendencies often limit total passing volume, capping Kupp's ceiling. The market appears anchored to Kupp's elite reputation rather than his current usage patterns. With a longest under streak of six games compared to just three overs, the consistency favors the under. The 24.8% ROI on unders over 26 games represents substantial value, while the -33.9% over ROI screams market overvaluation. This trend shows no signs of regression—if anything, continued offensive evolution in Los Angeles suggests the gap may widen.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.9 reception differential between Kupp's actual production and typical lines creates consistent value on unders. Target games where the Rams face strong defenses or when lines exceed 6.0 receptions. Main risk is a return to his 2021-2022 target dominance, but current offensive structure makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 14.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Cooper Kupp props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receptions prop record all games?
Cooper Kupp has gone over his receptions prop in just 9 of 26 games (34.6%) since October 2023, with 17 unders. His average of 5.12 receptions consistently falls short of typical 6.04 lines, creating a -0.9 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receptions all games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp receptions. The data strongly favors unders with +24.8% ROI versus -33.9% on overs. His 5.12 average against 6.04 lines creates consistent value, especially when lines exceed 6.0 receptions.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receptions all games?
Cooper Kupp averages 5.12 receptions per game over his last 26 contests. This falls 0.9 receptions below the typical 6.04 line, representing nearly a full reception of value on under bets consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp reception unders when lines hit 6.0 or higher, against strong pass defenses, or in potential low-scoring games. The 26-game sample shows consistent value regardless of matchup, but these conditions maximize edge.