Cooper Kupp's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 38.5% overs across 26 games with a brutal -8.0 yard differential. The Rams receiver consistently falls short of inflated lines, generating +17.5% ROI on unders while destroying over investments at -26.6%.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of systematic line inflation around Cooper Kupp's receiving production. Averaging 59.12 yards against lines of 67.12 represents an 8-yard cushion that books consistently fail to account for. This isn't a small sample anomaly—26 games provide substantial evidence of a persistent edge. The Rams' offensive evolution under Sean McVay has shifted toward a more balanced attack, reducing Kupp's target monopoly from his 2021 Triple Crown season. Kupp's role has become more situational, with the team incorporating Puka Nacua and other weapons that dilute his target share. The brutal -26.6% ROI on overs suggests recreational money inflates these lines, as casual bettors remember Kupp's elite seasons rather than his current role. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates the consistency of this trend, while the brief three-game over streak appears to be the exception rather than the rule. The 38.5% over rate sits well below the 52.4% break-even point needed for standard -110 odds, creating a mathematical edge that compounds over time. Without significant injury concerns or role changes, this trend appears sustainable as long as books continue setting lines based on name recognition rather than current usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8-yard average differential and strong historical ROI create a legitimate edge, but the sample size demands some caution. Target unders when lines exceed 65 yards, especially in divisional games where game scripts tend to be more conservative. The main risk is a sudden offensive explosion or injury to other Rams receivers that could spike Kupp's target share unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 37.5 | 61.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 48.5 | 29.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 29.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 58.5 | 24.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 63.5 | 0.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 92.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 70.5 | 17.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 64.5 | 60.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 65.5 | 106.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 67.5 | 80.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 66.5 | 104.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 51.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 85.5 | 37.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 110.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 69.5 | 27.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cooper Kupp's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Cooper Kupp has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 10 of 26 games (38.5%) since October 2023, averaging 59.12 yards against typical lines of 67.12 yards for a concerning -8.0 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Cooper Kupp receiving yards props. The data strongly favors unders with +17.5% ROI compared to devastating -26.6% losses on overs, supported by consistent 8-yard negative differentials across 26 games.
What's Cooper Kupp's average Receiving Yards all games?
Cooper Kupp averages 59.12 receiving yards per game compared to typical prop lines around 67.12 yards, creating an 8-yard cushion that consistently favors under bettors across his 26-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cooper Kupp receiving yards unders when lines exceed 65 yards, particularly in divisional matchups or games with conservative game scripts where the Rams' balanced offensive approach limits his target share.