Cole Kmet's reception props in home games present a compelling over opportunity, hitting 61.5% of the time with an 8-5-0 record. The Bears tight end averages 3.77 receptions at home versus a typical 2.96 line, creating a meaningful 0.8-reception edge that translates to +17.5% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
The 0.8-reception differential in Kmet's favor at home games represents genuine value rooted in Chicago's offensive approach at Soldier Field. This isn't a small sample fluke—13 games provide sufficient data to identify a legitimate pattern. The +17.5% ROI on overs demonstrates this edge translates to actual profit, while the brutal -26.6% under ROI shows the market consistently undervalues Kmet's home production. The Bears likely utilize Kmet more heavily in their home offensive schemes, whether through increased red zone targets, more underneath routes in familiar conditions, or simply better chemistry with the quarterback in comfortable surroundings. The 61.5% hit rate suggests this trend has staying power rather than being driven by a few outlier performances. However, the recent one-game under streak and the fact that Kmet has hit longer under streaks (up to two games) indicates this isn't automatic money. The key risk lies in game script—if Chicago falls behind significantly at home, they may abandon the methodical passing attack that feeds Kmet's reception totals in favor of deeper shots downfield.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.8-reception edge and 61.5% hit rate create legitimate value, but this isn't a slam-dunk play. Target Kmet over props when the Bears are home favorites or in projected close games where their balanced offensive approach will utilize the tight end consistently. Avoid in games where Chicago is expected to trail significantly, as negative game script could force them away from the underneath routes that drive Kmet's reception volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Kmet's Receptions prop record home games?
Cole Kmet has gone over his receptions prop in 8 of 13 home games (61.5%) with 5 unders and no pushes. This 8-5-0 record demonstrates consistent value on the over side when the Bears play at Soldier Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Kmet Receptions home games?
Lean over on Cole Kmet's receptions props in home games. The 0.8-reception edge and +17.5% ROI provide genuine value, especially when Chicago is favored or in close games that favor their balanced offensive approach.
What's Cole Kmet's average Receptions home games?
Cole Kmet averages 3.77 receptions in home games compared to his typical 2.96 line, creating a meaningful 0.8-reception edge. This differential translates to consistent over value and explains the 61.5% hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kmet reception overs when the Bears are home favorites or in projected close games. Avoid when Chicago is significant home underdogs, as negative game script could force them away from the underneath routes that drive his reception volume.