Cole Kmet has been a consistent under play over his last 10 games, going 4-6-0 on overs with a brutal -23.6% ROI. Despite averaging 31.2 yards against a 26.5 line, the under has delivered +14.6% returns. With four straight unders and poor over conversion, lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Cole Kmet's receiving yards props. While his 31.2-yard average suggests he's beating the 26.5 line by 4.7 yards, the reality is that variance has been killing over bettors. Kmet's 40% over rate indicates he's hitting big games less frequently than the market expects, creating a systematic edge for under bettors who've enjoyed a 14.6% ROI. The current four-game under streak isn't just noise—it reflects Chicago's offensive limitations and Kmet's role as a secondary target behind DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. The Bears' struggling passing attack has capped Kmet's ceiling, making those 35+ yard games increasingly rare. His floor remains solid around 20-25 yards through short targets and checkdowns, but the explosive games that push overs simply aren't materializing. The persistence of this trend suggests structural issues rather than temporary variance. Chicago's offensive line struggles have forced more quick-game concepts, limiting Kmet's downfield opportunities. Until the Bears' passing game shows meaningful improvement or Kmet's target share increases significantly, the under trend appears sustainable. The market may be overvaluing his early-season production or failing to account for Chicago's offensive regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with four straight unders creates a compelling edge, even with Kmet averaging above the line. Chicago's offensive limitations and Kmet's secondary role in the passing attack make 35+ yard games increasingly unlikely. The main risk is a potential shootout scenario forcing more passing volume, but the Bears' conservative approach and line protection issues limit Kmet's ceiling most weeks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 9.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 31.5 | 26.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 64.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 42.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 13.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 14.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 32.5 | 70.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 57.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Kmet's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Cole Kmet has gone 4-6-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. Over bettors have lost 23.6% ROI while under bettors gained 14.6% returns during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Kmet Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Cole Kmet's receiving yards. The under has delivered 14.6% ROI over 10 games with four straight hits. Chicago's offensive struggles and Kmet's secondary role make overs increasingly difficult despite his solid average.
What's Cole Kmet's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Cole Kmet has averaged 31.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games against a typical line of 26.5 yards. Despite beating the line by 4.7 yards on average, he's only hit overs 40% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cole Kmet unders when Chicago faces strong pass defenses or in games with low totals. His floor remains solid, but the Bears' offensive limitations make it difficult for him to reach explosive games needed for overs.