Cole Kmet delivers premium value on receiving yards overs in home games, posting a dominant 10-4 record (71.4%) with a massive +17.2 yard average differential above the betting line. This 36.4% ROI represents one of the strongest home/road splits in tight end prop betting. Strong lean over.
Expert Analysis
Kmet's home dominance stems from Chicago's offensive philosophy at Soldier Field, where the Bears utilize their tight end significantly more in the passing attack. The 46.36-yard home average versus a 29.14 typical line reveals consistent market undervaluation, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Kmet's enhanced role in familiar surroundings. This isn't variance—it's systematic deployment. Home games provide Kmet with better rhythm timing with his quarterback, fewer communication issues in crowd noise, and Chicago's tendency to attack the middle of the field more aggressively on their home turf. The 17.2-yard differential is substantial enough to overcome typical line movement, and the 71.4% hit rate indicates strong process consistency rather than lucky outcomes. The sample size of 14 games provides statistical relevance, though recent quarterback changes and offensive coordinator adjustments could impact future performance. Most concerning is the current 1-game under streak, which might signal evolving usage patterns. However, the historical edge remains compelling, particularly when combined with Chicago's home field advantages and Kmet's established rapport with the offensive system in familiar conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 71.4% hit rate and +17.2 average differential create legitimate value, especially when the line sits near that 29.14 historical mark. Target games where Chicago faces pass-heavy opponents or weather conditions favor short-to-intermediate passing. Main risk is evolving offensive schemes potentially reducing Kmet's target share, but the home field advantage remains structurally sound.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 9.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 64.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 42.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 13.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 32.5 | 70.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 57.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 27.5 | 34.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 4.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 107.0 | +68.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 66.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 37.5 | 45.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 27.5 | 85.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 30.5 | 44.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Kmet's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Cole Kmet's receiving yards prop record in home games is an impressive 10-4-0 over/under (71.4% overs). He averages 46.36 receiving yards at home against a typical line of 29.14, creating a +17.2 differential that generates 36.4% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Kmet Receiving Yards home games?
Bet over on Cole Kmet's receiving yards in home games. The 71.4% over rate and +17.2 average differential above the line represent strong value. Target lines around 29-32 yards for maximum edge, especially against pass-heavy opponents.
What's Cole Kmet's average Receiving Yards home games?
Cole Kmet averages 46.36 receiving yards in home games, significantly outpacing the typical 29.14 betting line. This +17.2 yard differential represents consistent market undervaluation of his enhanced performance at Soldier Field across 14 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Cole Kmet receiving yards overs in Chicago home games when the line sits between 28-32 yards. Target matchups against teams that struggle covering tight ends or games with projected shootout potential where passing volume increases.