Cole Kmet's receiving yards props have been significantly underpriced across 28 games, hitting overs at a 60.7% clip (17-11-0) while averaging 41.14 yards against lines averaging 29.29. This +11.9 yard differential suggests consistent market mispricing, making overs the clear lean despite a recent four-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The 60.7% over rate on Kmet receiving yards props reveals a systematic market inefficiency that has persisted across nearly two full seasons. The Chicago tight end consistently exceeds expectations by an average of 11.9 yards per game, indicating oddsmakers have struggled to properly price his involvement in the Bears offense. This isn't marginal outperformance—it's a substantial edge that has generated +15.9% ROI on overs while crushing under bettors with -25.0% returns. The trend's persistence across 28 games suggests this isn't random variance but rather reflects Kmet's evolving role as a reliable target in Chicago's passing attack. The current four-game under streak actually presents value, as it likely represents natural regression within a larger upward trend rather than a fundamental shift. Kmet's ability to consistently find 40+ yards receiving speaks to both his talent and the Bears' offensive scheme utilizing tight ends more effectively than markets initially recognized. The significant sample size and consistent outperformance across different game scripts and opponents indicates this edge has staying power, though the recent under streak warrants monitoring for potential line adjustments.
Betting Verdict
OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60.7% hit rate and massive +11.9 yard differential represent clear market mispricing that has persisted across 28 games. The current four-game under streak likely creates even better value as books may be slow to adjust lines upward. Target overs when Kmet's line sits below 35 yards, as his 41.14 average suggests significant profit potential. Main risk is the recent under trend continuing if Chicago's offensive approach has fundamentally shifted.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 9.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 31.5 | 26.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 24.5 | 64.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 42.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 27.5 | 13.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 36.5 | 14.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 32.5 | 70.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 57.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 27.5 | 34.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 97.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 18.5 | 27.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 4.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 107.0 | +68.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cole Kmet's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Cole Kmet's receiving yards props show a 17-11-0 record (60.7% overs) across 28 games from September 2023 to January 2025. He averages 41.14 receiving yards against lines averaging 29.29, creating an impressive +11.9 yard differential that has generated consistent profits for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cole Kmet Receiving Yards all games?
Bet OVER on Cole Kmet receiving yards props. The 60.7% hit rate and +11.9 yard differential represent clear market mispricing. The recent four-game under streak likely creates even better value, as his 41.14 average far exceeds typical line settings around 29 yards.
What's Cole Kmet's average Receiving Yards all games?
Cole Kmet averages 41.14 receiving yards per game across 28 contests, significantly outpacing his average line of 29.29 yards. This +11.9 yard differential demonstrates consistent outperformance and suggests oddsmakers have undervalued his role in Chicago's passing attack throughout this sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cole Kmet receiving yards overs when his line sits below 35 yards, especially after under streaks like the current four-game run. His 41.14 average suggests excellent value at typical line settings, with the persistent +11.9 differential indicating this edge has staying power across different game situations.