C.J. Stroud's passing touchdown production has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time while averaging 0.9 TDs against a typical 1.5 line. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI, making it the clear profitable side.
Expert Analysis
The second-year quarterback's touchdown regression represents one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL. Stroud's 0.9 touchdown average sits a full 0.6 below the standard 1.5 line, creating consistent value for under bettors who have cashed 70% of their tickets. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by Houston's offensive limitations. The Texans have struggled in the red zone, often settling for field goals where Stroud previously found the end zone as a rookie. His current three-game under streak reflects deeper issues with target distribution and play-calling near the goal line. The -42.7% over ROI tells the complete story: books haven't adjusted quickly enough to Stroud's sophomore slump. While regression toward his rookie numbers seems inevitable long-term, the underlying offensive structure suggests this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season. The lack of a consistent red zone threat beyond Nico Collins has forced Houston into more conservative approaches, limiting Stroud's touchdown ceiling even in favorable matchups.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Stroud's 30% over rate and -0.6 average differential create substantial value on the under, particularly when the line sits at 1.5 or higher. The trend shows remarkable consistency with no concerning regression signals. Target under bets when Houston faces strong red zone defenses or in potential low-scoring affairs. The primary risk is a breakout performance that could signal trend reversal, but current form suggests continued profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare C.J. Stroud props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is C.J. Stroud's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Stroud has gone 3-7 over/under on passing touchdowns in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He's averaging 0.9 TDs per game against typical 1.5 lines, creating a -0.6 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on C.J. Stroud Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Stroud's 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI for under bettors creates clear value. His current form shows no signs of immediate regression, making the under the profitable long-term play.
What's C.J. Stroud's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Stroud averages 0.9 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, sitting 0.6 below the standard 1.5 line. This significant gap between production and market expectation creates consistent value for disciplined under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Stroud under bets when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, especially against strong red zone defenses. Low total games and divisional matchups offer additional value, as Houston's conservative approach limits explosive touchdown potential.