Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 6-4 under with a devastating 5-game under streak. He's averaging 75.2 yards against an 80.7 line, creating a -5.5 yard differential that translates to +14.6% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story of a player whose market perception hasn't caught up to his current reality. McCaffrey's 75.2-yard average represents a significant 6.8% shortfall from his typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers are still pricing him based on his elite historical production rather than his recent output. The five-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects systematic factors limiting his rushing volume. San Francisco's offensive evolution has increasingly featured McCaffrey as a receiving weapon, with his pass-catching role eating into traditional rushing opportunities. Additionally, the 49ers have faced tougher run defenses and negative game scripts that favor passing over grinding out yards on the ground. The -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders creates a clear market inefficiency. Most telling is the consistency of this trend—McCaffrey hasn't strung together more than two consecutive overs in this sample, indicating this isn't a temporary slump but a structural shift in usage patterns. While regression toward his career norms is inevitable, the current data suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his evolving role within Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The five-game under streak combined with a -5.5 yard differential creates compelling value on McCaffrey rushing yard unders. Target games where San Francisco faces strong run defenses or projects to trail early, forcing more pass-heavy game scripts. Main risk is positive regression—McCaffrey's talent level makes extended cold streaks unsustainable long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 53.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 76.5 | 31.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 84.5 | 79.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 39.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 89.5 | 80.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 86.5 | 90.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 89.5 | 98.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 88.5 | 64.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 83.5 | 103.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 85.5 | 115.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Christian McCaffrey's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
McCaffrey has gone 4-6 over/under on rushing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's currently riding a five-game under streak, his longest in this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on McCaffrey's rushing yards. The data strongly favors unders with +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs. His five-game under streak reflects genuine usage changes, not temporary variance.
What's Christian McCaffrey's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
McCaffrey is averaging 75.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 80.7 yards. This -5.5 yard differential consistently favors under bettors in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McCaffrey rushing yard unders when San Francisco faces strong run defenses or in games where they're projected to trail early, forcing pass-heavy game scripts that limit his ground opportunities.