Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards props have delivered exceptional over value across 22 games, hitting at a 59.1% clip with a robust +12.8% ROI. His 85.64-yard average sits 8.7 yards above typical lines, creating a consistent edge despite a recent five-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The McCaffrey rushing yards over has been one of the most profitable prop bets in the NFL, driven by his elite workload and the 49ers' commitment to establishing the ground game. His 8.7-yard average differential above betting lines reflects consistent market undervaluation of his floor and ceiling combination. The 59.1% over rate isn't just volume-driven—McCaffrey's versatility forces defenses to account for his receiving ability, often leaving lighter boxes that he exploits on the ground. His recent five-game under streak represents the longest dry spell in this sample, but historically these cold stretches have preceded his strongest over runs. The concerning element is that this streak coincides with increased injury management and potential workload preservation as the season progresses. However, the underlying metrics remain strong—his snap percentage hasn't declined significantly, and the 49ers' offensive identity remains built around his production. The key risk factor is game script dependency, as blowouts in either direction can limit his rushing attempts. Yet even in negative game scripts, McCaffrey's receiving work often translates to designed rushing touches through screens and checkdowns that convert to rushing yards.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8.7-yard differential and +12.8% ROI create a mathematical edge that outweighs the recent under streak. McCaffrey's workload remains elite, and his rushing floor stays elevated through the 49ers' offensive system. The main risk is continued load management, but his production metrics suggest the recent cold spell is variance rather than decline. Target overs when lines stay in the mid-70s range.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 53.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 76.5 | 31.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 84.5 | 79.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 39.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 89.5 | 80.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 86.5 | 90.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 89.5 | 98.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 88.5 | 64.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 83.5 | 103.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 85.5 | 115.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 81.5 | 145.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 73.5 | 93.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 75.5 | 114.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 67.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 65.5 | 95.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Christian McCaffrey props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Christian McCaffrey's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Christian McCaffrey has gone over his rushing yards prop in 13 of 22 games (59.1%) with a 13-9-0 record. His overs have generated a +12.8% ROI while unders have lost -21.9%, showing clear long-term profitability on the over side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards props. The 8.7-yard average differential above betting lines and +12.8% ROI create a mathematical edge. Despite his recent five-game under streak, the underlying metrics support continued over value.
What's Christian McCaffrey's average Rushing Yards all games?
Christian McCaffrey averages 85.64 rushing yards per game against an average line of 76.95 yards, creating an 8.7-yard positive differential. This gap represents consistent market undervaluation of his rushing production across the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McCaffrey rushing yards overs when lines stay in the mid-70s range and the 49ers are expected to control game script. Avoid during potential blowout scenarios or when injury reports suggest workload management concerns.