Chris Godwin shows a clear away-game edge with 7-6-0 over record (53.8% hit rate) and averages 5.92 receptions against 5.12 lines—a meaningful +0.8 differential. The modest over rate masks consistent line value, making this a lean over situation when conditions align.
Expert Analysis
Godwin's away-game reception production reveals a subtle but persistent edge that sharper bettors can exploit. The 5.92 average against 5.12 lines represents genuine value, not statistical noise—that 0.8 differential compounds over time when you're getting the right number. The 53.8% over rate might seem underwhelming, but it's profitable when combined with the consistent line differential. Away games often force Tampa Bay into more pass-heavy scripts, particularly when trailing or facing hostile environments that disrupt their ground game rhythm. Godwin benefits from increased target volume in these scenarios, as defenses focus on containing Mike Evans and the vertical passing attack. The +2.8% ROI on overs confirms this isn't a mirage—the market consistently undervalues Godwin's floor in road spots. However, the -11.9% under ROI suggests significant risk when betting against this trend. The key concern is Tampa Bay's offensive inconsistency and Tom Brady's departure potentially altering target distribution patterns. Still, Godwin's route-running precision and slot versatility make him scheme-proof enough to maintain elevated usage away from home, where precision becomes even more critical.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent +0.8 line differential and 53.8% hit rate create sustainable value, particularly when Tampa Bay faces defensive pressure that forces quick-game targets to Godwin. Best conditions are road games against aggressive pass rushes or when trailing early. Main risk is offensive game script deviation or target redistribution, but Godwin's role versatility provides a solid floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receptions prop record away games?
Chris Godwin has gone over his receptions prop 7 times in 13 away games (53.8% rate) with a 7-6-0 record. He averages 5.92 receptions per away game against typical lines of 5.12, creating a consistent +0.8 value differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receptions away games?
Lean over on Chris Godwin's receptions in away games. The +0.8 differential above market lines and 53.8% hit rate with positive ROI creates sustainable value, especially when Tampa Bay faces defensive pressure or adverse game scripts.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receptions away games?
Chris Godwin averages 5.92 receptions in away games compared to typical prop lines of 5.12. This +0.8 differential represents genuine market inefficiency, as oddsmakers consistently undervalue his road production floor by nearly one full reception.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Godwin reception overs in away games when Tampa Bay faces aggressive pass rushes or strong run defenses that force quick-game targets. Avoid when the Bucs are heavy road favorites or in potential blowout scenarios.