Chris Godwin's receiving yards props have hit the under 54% of the time over 26 games, with a 12-14-0 over/under record. Despite averaging 64.81 yards against a 57.23 line, the -11.9% ROI on overs suggests market overvaluation. Lean under on inflated numbers.
Expert Analysis
The Chris Godwin receiving yards market presents a classic case of perception versus reality. While Godwin averages a solid 64.81 yards per game against an average line of 57.23, the 46.2% over rate tells a more complex story. The -11.9% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overprices his ceiling, likely influenced by his WR1 status in Tampa Bay's pass-heavy offense. Godwin's production pattern shows volatility that favors under bettors, with a longest under streak of six games demonstrating his tendency toward inconsistent yardage totals. The positive differential of 7.6 yards suggests he regularly exceeds expectations, yet the betting results reveal this surplus isn't enough to overcome inflated lines. This disconnect often occurs with high-profile receivers whose name recognition drives public betting, creating value on the under side. The current single-game under streak following a four-game over run exemplifies Godwin's boom-bust nature. Tampa Bay's offensive scheme, while pass-heavy, distributes targets among multiple weapons, limiting Godwin's floor despite his talent level.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market consistently overvalues Chris Godwin's receiving yards ceiling, evidenced by the -11.9% ROI on overs despite his 7.6-yard average differential. Target under bets when his line exceeds 65 yards, particularly in games where Tampa Bay faces strong pass defenses or game script favors balanced offensive approaches. Primary risk involves Godwin's genuine talent creating explosive performances that can quickly surpass inflated totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 73.5 | 65.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 64.5 | 125.0 | +60.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 64.5 | 64.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 65.5 | 69.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 66.5 | 53.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 62.5 | 117.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 57.5 | 83.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 63.5 | 40.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 56.5 | 45.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 53.5 | 81.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 78.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 155.0 | +110.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 50.5 | 53.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 45.5 | 0.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chris Godwin's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Chris Godwin's receiving yards prop record stands at 12-14-0 over/under across 26 games, hitting the under 54% of the time. This 46.2% over rate demonstrates consistent market overvaluation despite his solid production levels.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chris Godwin Receiving Yards all games?
Lean under on Chris Godwin receiving yards props, especially when lines exceed 65 yards. The -11.9% ROI on overs shows the market consistently overprices his ceiling, creating value on under bets despite his talent.
What's Chris Godwin's average Receiving Yards all games?
Chris Godwin averages 64.81 receiving yards per game against an average line of 57.23 yards, creating a positive 7.6-yard differential. However, this surplus hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to inflated market pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chris Godwin under bets when his receiving yards line exceeds 65 yards or when Tampa Bay faces strong pass defenses. Avoid betting during potential shootout scenarios where his ceiling becomes more accessible.