CeeDee Lamb has destroyed receiving yards unders in home games, going 11-6-0 over with a massive +18.8 yard differential above the average line. The 64.7% over rate generates +23.5% ROI, making home overs a premium play.
Expert Analysis
CeeDee Lamb's home dominance stems from Dallas's offensive scheme maximizing his slot versatility in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys' play-calling becomes more aggressive at home, targeting Lamb on crossing routes and quick slants that exploit the dome's controlled conditions. His 97.76 yards per home game significantly outpaces the typical 78.97 line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his home performance. The trend shows remarkable consistency with only six unders across 17 games, indicating this isn't variance but systematic advantage. Lamb benefits from increased target share when Dallas controls game script at home, plus the dome eliminates weather variables that can cap passing games. The Cowboys' offensive line performs better in familiar surroundings, giving Dak Prescott more time to find Lamb on intermediate routes. However, the sample includes games against varying defensive strengths, and regression remains possible if oddsmakers adjust lines higher. The key risk is Dallas falling behind early, forcing them away from methodical drives that generate Lamb's consistent targets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Lamb's home splits reveal a clear edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected, with the +18.8 yard differential providing substantial cushion. Target games where Dallas is favored by 3+ points to maximize script advantages. Main risk is inflated lines after this trend gains wider recognition, but current pricing still offers value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 73.5 | 105.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 66.5 | 93.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 67.5 | 39.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 60.5 | 93.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 65.5 | 21.0 | -44.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 88.5 | 89.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 83.5 | 67.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 89.5 | 90.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 100.5 | 110.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 99.5 | 227.0 | +127.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 92.5 | 71.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 87.5 | 116.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 93.5 | 53.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 77.5 | 151.0 | +73.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 68.5 | 158.0 | +89.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is CeeDee Lamb's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
CeeDee Lamb goes over his receiving yards prop 64.7% of the time in home games with an 11-6-0 record. He averages 97.76 yards at home versus a typical line around 78.97 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards home games?
Bet over on CeeDee Lamb's receiving yards in home games. The 11-6-0 over record and +18.8 yard differential above the line create a clear edge worth targeting consistently.
What's CeeDee Lamb's average Receiving Yards home games?
CeeDee Lamb averages 97.76 receiving yards in home games, nearly 19 yards above the typical line of 78.97. This massive differential explains the 64.7% over rate and strong ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target CeeDee Lamb receiving yards overs in home games when Dallas is favored, especially in dome conditions. Avoid when the Cowboys are significant underdogs and may abandon the run game.