Cedric Tillman's receiving yards props have been massively mispriced, with unders hitting 60% of the time despite averaging 40.8 yards against a 29.1 line. The 11.7-yard average differential masks extreme volatility that favors selective under betting.
Expert Analysis
Tillman's receiving yards trend reveals a classic case of sportsbooks overadjusting to small sample noise. While his 40.8-yard average suggests consistent over value, the 4-6 over-under record exposes the volatility trap. The +14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% on overs tells the real story - Tillman's production swings wildly between ceiling games that inflate his average and floor games that hit unders. The current two-game under streak follows a pattern of clustering, with his longest under streak reaching four games. This volatility stems from Cleveland's inconsistent passing game and Tillman's boom-bust usage patterns. The Browns' offensive struggles create game scripts where Tillman either feasts in garbage time or disappears entirely. His role as a secondary option means target share fluctuates dramatically based on defensive coverage and game flow. The 11.7-yard positive differential appears misleading when you consider it's driven by a few explosive performances rather than consistent production. Sportsbooks seem to be setting lines based on his ceiling rather than his median output, creating systematic under value. The lack of split data suggests books haven't identified the specific conditions driving his variance, maintaining inefficient pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under hit rate and positive ROI indicate systematic line inflation despite Tillman's solid average. Target unders when lines exceed 35 yards, especially in divisional games or when Cleveland faces strong secondaries that limit explosive plays. The main risk is a ceiling game inflating averages, but the clustering pattern suggests unders come in bunches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 43.5 | 28.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 47.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 48.5 | 75.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 39.5 | 99.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 81.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 3.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 22.5 | 8.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 13.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 19.5 | 52.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Tillman's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Tillman went 4-6 over-under on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. Despite averaging 40.8 yards against a 29.1 average line, unders provided +14.6% ROI while overs lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Tillman's receiving yards props. The 60% under hit rate and positive ROI indicate systematic overvaluation. Target unders when lines exceed 35 yards, particularly against strong secondaries that limit explosive plays.
What's Cedric Tillman's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Tillman averaged 40.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 29.1 yards, creating an 11.7-yard positive differential. However, this average masks extreme volatility that favors selective under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Tillman receiving yards unders when lines exceed 35 yards, especially in divisional matchups or against top-15 pass defenses. Avoid overs during his under streaks, as his production tends to cluster in boom-bust patterns.