Cedric Tillman's receiving yards props present a clear under opportunity despite averaging 35.83 yards against a 26.58 line. His 5-7-0 over/under record translates to just 41.7% overs with a devastating -20.4% ROI on over bets. The under side shows sustainable +11.4% returns across 12 games.
Expert Analysis
The Cedric Tillman receiving yards market reveals a classic case of inflated expectations meeting reality. While his 35.83-yard average suggests he consistently beats his 26.58-yard line, the 5-7 over/under record exposes the volatility trap that crushes over bettors. Tillman's role in Cleveland's offense creates feast-or-famine scenarios where he either explodes for 60+ yards or disappears entirely, making the over a low-percentage play despite the positive differential. The current two-game under streak follows a pattern where Tillman alternates between productive and quiet games, reflecting his inconsistent target share in a Browns offense that spreads the ball around. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates how quickly he can go cold, while even his three-game over streak couldn't generate sustainable profits. The -20.4% ROI on overs tells the complete story – books have effectively priced in his ceiling games while the floor performances destroy over tickets. Cleveland's offensive struggles and Tillman's secondary role behind established receivers create a ceiling that limits his upside more than the raw yardage average suggests.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +11.4% ROI on unders combined with Tillman's inconsistent role makes this the superior long-term play. Target under bets when Cleveland faces strong pass defenses or in games where the Browns are likely to lean on their running game. The main risk is Tillman breaking out in garbage time or benefiting from injuries to other receivers, but his track record suggests these scenarios are already baked into the inflated lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 43.5 | 28.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 47.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 48.5 | 75.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 39.5 | 99.0 | +59.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 16.5 | 81.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 3.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 22.5 | 8.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 13.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 19.5 | 52.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cedric Tillman's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Cedric Tillman's receiving yards prop record stands at 5-7-0 over/under across 12 games, hitting the over just 41.7% of the time. This poor over rate has generated a brutal -20.4% ROI for over bettors while under bets profit at +11.4%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Cedric Tillman's receiving yards props. Despite averaging 35.83 yards against a 26.58 line, his 41.7% over rate and +11.4% under ROI make the under the clear value play in this inflated market.
What's Cedric Tillman's average Receiving Yards all games?
Cedric Tillman averages 35.83 receiving yards per game, beating his average line of 26.58 yards by 9.2 yards. However, this positive differential is misleading as he only hits overs 41.7% of the time due to extreme volatility.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cedric Tillman receiving yards unders when Cleveland faces strong pass defenses or in games where the Browns are expected to run heavily. His inconsistent target share makes unders most profitable during Browns offensive struggles.