Calvin Ridley has torched divisional opponents with a 63.6% over rate (7-4-0) and averages 71.18 receiving yards against an average line of 59.32, creating an 11.9-yard edge. The +21.5% ROI on overs reflects consistent outperformance in AFC South matchups.
Expert Analysis
Ridley's divisional dominance stems from the AFC South's vulnerability to elite receivers and Tennessee's game-script dependency in competitive divisional contests. The 11.9-yard average differential suggests books consistently undervalue Ridley's production against familiar opponents who struggle to contain his route-running precision. Divisional games often feature higher offensive outputs due to defensive familiarity breeding aggressive play-calling, and Ridley benefits from increased target share when the Titans chase points against Houston, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville. The 63.6% over rate across 11 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the current two-game over streak aligns with seasonal trends. However, the lack of recent form data creates uncertainty about Ridley's current health and target competition. The -30.6% under ROI indicates sharp money has identified this edge, potentially leading to line adjustments. Regression risk exists given the significant outperformance, but divisional game dynamics and Ridley's consistent target share suggest sustainable value. Weather and game script remain the primary variables that could derail over bets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.9-yard average differential and 63.6% over rate create legitimate value in divisional matchups where Ridley consistently exceeds expectations. Target overs when Tennessee faces offensive-minded AFC South opponents in dome environments or favorable weather conditions. Primary risk involves potential line inflation as books adjust to this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 63.5 | 84.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 60.5 | 78.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 66.5 | 59.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 59.5 | 93.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 47.5 | 0.0 | -47.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 48.5 | 106.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 59.5 | 89.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 50.5 | 103.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 63.5 | 30.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 40.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 101.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Calvin Ridley's Receiving Yards prop record divisional games?
Calvin Ridley posts a 7-4-0 over/under record (63.6% overs) on receiving yards props in divisional games, generating a +21.5% ROI for over bettors across 11 games since joining Tennessee.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Calvin Ridley Receiving Yards divisional games?
Lean over on Calvin Ridley's receiving yards in divisional games. His 11.9-yard average differential above the line and 63.6% over rate create consistent value against AFC South opponents.
What's Calvin Ridley's average Receiving Yards divisional games?
Ridley averages 71.18 receiving yards in divisional games compared to an average line of 59.32 yards, creating an 11.9-yard edge that reflects books undervaluing his divisional performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ridley receiving yards overs in divisional games with favorable weather conditions and when Tennessee faces offensive-minded AFC South opponents who force competitive game scripts and higher passing volumes.