Caleb Williams has hit the over on rushing yards in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a solid +14.6% ROI on overs. The rookie quarterback averages 27.3 rushing yards against a typical line of 25.6, creating a modest but consistent +1.7 yard edge that suggests lean over value.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rushing production reflects the modern dual-threat quarterback archetype, with his mobility serving as both a designed element and emergency outlet in Chicago's offensive system. The 27.3-yard average against 25.6 lines indicates oddsmakers are still calibrating to his rushing floor, particularly as defenses focus on containing his arm rather than his legs. The 60% over rate demonstrates consistency rather than volatility – Williams isn't boom-or-bust but rather provides steady rushing production that slightly exceeds market expectations. His current one-game under streak follows a four-game over run, suggesting natural variance rather than a fundamental shift in usage. The +1.7 differential, while modest, represents meaningful value over a 10-game sample. However, the -23.6% under ROI indicates that when Williams falls short, he does so significantly, likely due to game script situations where Chicago falls behind early and abandons rushing concepts. The lack of extreme splits suggests his rushing production remains relatively stable across different game conditions, making this a more predictable prop than typical quarterback rushing markets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams consistently exceeds his rushing lines by nearly two yards per game, and the 60% over rate with positive ROI indicates genuine market inefficiency. The best spots are neutral game scripts where Chicago can utilize designed runs and Williams isn't forced into pure dropback mode. Main risk is negative game flow forcing Chicago into obvious passing situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 10.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 26.5 | 37.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 31.5 | 34.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 3.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 27.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 31.5 | 39.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 22.5 | 33.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 20.5 | 70.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 15.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 5.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. This translates to a +14.6% return on investment for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Williams rushing yards props. He consistently exceeds lines by 1.7 yards per game with 60% over rate and positive ROI. The market appears slow to adjust to his rushing floor as a mobile rookie quarterback.
What's Caleb Williams's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Williams averages 27.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 25.6 yards. This +1.7 differential represents consistent value, as he's exceeded market expectations by nearly two yards per contest.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rushing overs in neutral game scripts when Chicago can utilize designed runs and rollouts. Avoid when the Bears are expected to trail significantly, as negative game flow forces pure dropback situations that eliminate rushing opportunities.