Caleb Williams has been a consistent under performer in his passing yards props, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games with a -3.8 yard average differential. The rookie quarterback's struggles against NFL defenses have created profitable under opportunities with a +14.6% ROI. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Williams's 40% over rate reflects the growing pains of a rookie quarterback adjusting to NFL speed and complexity. His -3.8 yard differential against the betting line suggests oddsmakers are still overvaluing his passing volume based on college production and draft pedigree. The Bears' offensive system under Shane Waldron has emphasized short, conservative passing concepts that limit Williams's ceiling while he develops pocket presence and reads. Chicago's struggling offensive line has forced quicker releases and checkdowns, naturally suppressing passing yardage totals. Williams's current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of books being slow to adjust lines downward for rookie quarterbacks. The 209.3 yard average indicates a player still finding his rhythm in a professional offense that prioritizes ball security over explosive passing plays. Chicago's ground game and defensive struggles often dictate negative game scripts, but Williams hasn't capitalized with garbage time volume as expected. The consistency of this trend across 10 games suggests systemic factors rather than temporary variance, making it a reliable betting pattern until Williams demonstrates sustained improvement or the Bears' offensive approach evolves significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's 60% under rate and negative ROI on overs reflects real limitations in Chicago's passing attack rather than bad luck. The rookie's conservative approach and the Bears' emphasis on limiting turnovers creates a natural ceiling on his passing volume. Target unders when facing strong pass defenses or in potential low-scoring divisional games where Chicago prioritizes ball control.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 199.5 | 148.0 | -51.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 218.5 | 122.0 | -96.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 215.5 | 334.0 | +118.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 222.5 | 191.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 221.5 | 134.0 | -87.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 230.5 | 256.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 204.5 | 340.0 | +135.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 193.5 | 231.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 205.5 | 120.0 | -85.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 219.5 | 217.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone 4-6 over/under on his passing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. He's averaging 209.3 yards against a 213.1 average line, creating a -3.8 yard differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Williams's passing yards props. His 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders reflects genuine limitations in Chicago's passing attack, not temporary variance. The trend shows consistency across his rookie development.
What's Caleb Williams's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Williams is averaging 209.3 passing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 213.1 yards. This -3.8 yard differential indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly four yards per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams passing yards unders against strong pass defenses or in divisional games where Chicago emphasizes ball control. His conservative approach and the Bears' focus on limiting turnovers creates natural volume ceilings in these situations.