Caleb Williams has been a consistent under performer on passing yards props, hitting just 35.3% of overs across 17 games with a brutal -9.4 yard differential versus lines. The rookie quarterback's 6-11-0 record represents one of the season's most reliable under trends.
Expert Analysis
Williams's passing yards struggles stem from Chicago's conservative offensive approach and his rookie growing pains. The Bears have leaned heavily on their running game and short passing concepts, limiting Williams's opportunities for explosive aerial production. His 208.29 yards per game average consistently falls short of inflated lines that reflect his draft pedigree rather than current reality. The -32.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to Chicago's methodical offensive identity under Shane Waldron. Williams has shown flashes of his arm talent, but the Bears' emphasis on ball control and field position has capped his ceiling. The rookie's interception concerns have also led to more conservative game plans, particularly in close contests. His current two-game under streak aligns with the season-long pattern, and there's little evidence suggesting the Bears will suddenly unleash a vertical passing attack. The consistency of this trend across different game scripts and opponents indicates structural factors rather than random variance. Sportsbooks continue to set lines based on Williams's potential rather than his current production within Chicago's system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams's 35.3% over rate and -9.4 yard differential represent a clear market inefficiency that hasn't been properly corrected. The ideal spots are primetime games or divisional matchups where Chicago typically employs even more conservative game plans. The main risk is a potential late-season offensive evolution or garbage time production in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 199.5 | 148.0 | -51.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 218.5 | 122.0 | -96.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 215.5 | 334.0 | +118.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 222.5 | 191.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 221.5 | 134.0 | -87.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 230.5 | 256.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 204.5 | 340.0 | +135.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 193.5 | 231.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 205.5 | 120.0 | -85.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 219.5 | 217.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 234.5 | 131.0 | -103.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 241.5 | 226.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 212.5 | 304.0 | +91.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 222.5 | 157.0 | -65.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 211.5 | 363.0 | +151.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Williams has gone 6-11-0 on passing yards overs across 17 games, hitting just 35.3% with a -9.4 yard average differential. His 208.29 yards per game falls consistently short of typical 217.74 lines, creating a -32.6% ROI disaster for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Passing Yards all games?
Lean under on Williams's passing yards props. His 35.3% over rate and consistent -9.4 yard shortfall represent a clear edge, though be selective about spots where Chicago might abandon their conservative approach in potential blowouts.
What's Caleb Williams's average Passing Yards all games?
Williams averages 208.29 passing yards per game compared to typical lines around 217.74, creating a -9.4 yard differential. This gap reflects the market's failure to properly adjust for Chicago's run-heavy offensive approach and Williams's rookie limitations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target divisional games and primetime spots where Chicago employs maximum conservatism. Avoid potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate numbers. The best under opportunities come in close, low-scoring games where ball control dominates.