Caleb Williams shows marginal over value in conference games with a 54.5% over rate (6-5-0) across 11 games. His 1.18 touchdown average runs slightly below the typical 1.23 line, but the +4.1% over ROI suggests modest betting edge. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Williams' passing touchdown production in conference games reveals a rookie quarterback still finding his rhythm in crucial divisional matchups. The 54.5% over rate masks underlying volatility, with his 1.18 average sitting just 0.05 touchdowns below market expectations. This narrow gap suggests oddsmakers have properly calibrated his baseline production, but the positive over ROI indicates value exists when conditions align. Conference games typically feature heightened defensive focus and game-planning familiarity, which explains why Williams hasn't consistently exceeded expectations. However, his ability to hit overs in 6 of 11 games demonstrates flashes of the upside that made him the first overall pick. The key lies in identifying spots where Chicago's offensive scheme can exploit specific defensive weaknesses or when game script favors aggressive passing. Williams' touchdown variance appears tied to red zone efficiency and his developing chemistry with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. The modest sample size means recent performance carries outsized weight, making matchup analysis crucial for finding profitable spots.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' +4.1% over ROI provides a slight edge despite his below-line average, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his upside potential in conference games. Target overs when Chicago faces weaker pass defenses or in projected shootouts where game script demands multiple touchdown passes. Main risk is his inconsistent red zone execution.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Caleb Williams's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Williams has gone over his passing touchdowns prop 6 times in 11 conference games (54.5% rate) with a 6-5-0 over/under record. His average of 1.18 touchdowns per game runs slightly below the typical 1.23 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Caleb Williams Passing TDs conference games?
Lean over on Williams' passing touchdowns in conference games, particularly against weaker pass defenses. The +4.1% over ROI suggests modest value despite his below-line average, making selective over betting the preferred approach.
What's Caleb Williams's average Passing TDs conference games?
Williams averages 1.18 passing touchdowns per conference game, running 0.05 touchdowns below the typical 1.23 line. This narrow gap suggests the market has properly calibrated his baseline production level in divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams' passing touchdown overs in conference games against bottom-tier pass defenses or in projected high-scoring affairs. Avoid betting when Chicago faces elite defenses or in expected low-scoring divisional slugfests.