Cade Otton has been a reliable under play in receptions, going 3-7-0 O/U with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs versus +33.6% on unders. Currently riding a six-game under streak with minimal upside above his 4.3 average line. LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
The Cade Otton reception trend represents a classic case of market overvaluation meeting consistent underperformance. His 30.0% over rate across ten games isn't just bad luck—it reflects systematic issues in Tampa Bay's offensive deployment of their tight end. The +0.1 differential between his 4.4 average and 4.3 typical line seems negligible, but that microscopic edge masks the real story: Otton consistently falls short of market expectations. The six-game under streak indicates either a role reduction, increased target competition, or defensive adjustments that limit his involvement. Tampa Bay's passing game hierarchy places Otton behind primary receivers, making him dependent on red zone opportunities and broken plays rather than consistent volume. The -42.7% ROI on overs is particularly damning—it suggests books are still pricing him based on outdated usage patterns or seasonal projections that don't reflect current reality. This isn't random variance when the sample reaches ten games and shows such stark directional bias. The trend appears sustainable because tight end usage tends to be more predictable than skill position volatility, especially when offensive coordinators establish clear pecking orders.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The six-game under streak and horrific over ROI indicate systemic underperformance rather than temporary variance. Target Otton unders when lines sit at 4.5+ receptions, as his 4.4 average provides cushion. Primary risk is garbage-time volume if Tampa Bay falls behind early, but the consistency of this trend outweighs situational concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cade Otton's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Cade Otton has gone 3-7-0 over/under on receptions props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30.0% of the time. This represents one of the most reliable under trends among tight ends this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cade Otton Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Cade Otton receptions. His 30.0% over rate and devastating -42.7% ROI on overs, combined with a current six-game under streak, makes the under the clear profitable side with +33.6% ROI.
What's Cade Otton's average Receptions last 10 games?
Cade Otton averages 4.4 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 4.3. While this +0.1 differential appears neutral, his 70% under rate shows he consistently falls short of expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Otton reception unders when lines reach 4.5+ receptions, maximizing the gap between his 4.4 average and the betting number. Avoid during potential blowout games where garbage time could inflate his targets artificially.