Cade Otton's reception props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 43.8% of overs across 16 games with a consistent +1.0 average differential above the line. The current three-game under streak reinforces the statistical edge favoring the under in Tampa Bay home games.
Expert Analysis
Otton's home reception struggles stem from Tampa Bay's offensive philosophy in familiar surroundings, where the Buccaneers typically establish more balanced attack patterns that reduce his target share. The 4.19 average against a 3.19 line creates an illusion of value on overs, but the 43.8% success rate tells the real story. Home games often feature different game scripts for Tampa Bay, with improved running game efficiency and shorter fields reducing the need for intermediate targets that typically feed Otton. The -16.5% ROI on overs versus +7.4% on unders represents a significant market inefficiency. Otton's role as a secondary receiving option becomes more pronounced at home, where Todd Bowles' system tends to favor primary weapons Mike Evans and Chris Godwin more heavily. The current three-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather a continuation of a pattern where oddsmakers consistently overvalue Otton's home reception potential. This trend appears sustainable given Tampa Bay's offensive tendencies and Otton's target distribution patterns in home environments.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 7.4% ROI on unders combined with the consistent +1.0 differential above actual performance creates sustainable value. Target unders when the line sits at 4.0 or higher, as Otton's 4.19 home average suggests lines above this threshold offer the strongest edges. Primary risk involves potential garbage time volume if Tampa Bay falls behind early, but the overall trend remains compelling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cade Otton's Receptions prop record home games?
Otton's reception props in home games show a 7-9-0 over/under record, hitting overs just 43.8% of the time across 16 games. This translates to a -16.5% ROI on overs versus +7.4% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cade Otton Receptions home games?
Bet the under on Otton's receptions in home games. The 56.2% under rate and +7.4% ROI provide consistent value, especially when lines are set at 4.0 or higher given his 4.19 home average.
What's Cade Otton's average Receptions home games?
Otton averages 4.19 receptions in home games against an average line of 3.19, creating a +1.0 differential. Despite exceeding the line on average, overs hit just 43.8% of the time due to distribution patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Otton reception unders when Tampa Bay plays at home with lines at 4.0 or higher. The current three-game under streak and consistent +1.0 differential above lines create optimal betting conditions for sustained value.