Cade Otton's reception props show a clear underdog bias with just 42.4% overs across 33 games, currently riding a six-game under streak. The Buccaneers tight end averages 3.67 receptions against a typical 3.26 line, but under bettors have generated positive 9.9% ROI while over backers lost 19.0%. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Cade Otton under bettors. Despite averaging 3.67 receptions per game—a healthy 0.4 above the typical line—Otton has hit the over in just 14 of 33 games since September 2023. This disconnect between average performance and betting results reveals the volatility inherent in tight end usage within Tampa Bay's passing attack. Otton's role as the secondary receiving option behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin creates feast-or-famine scenarios where he either sees heavy target volume in specific game scripts or gets marginalized when the Buccaneers lean on their star receivers. The current six-game under streak suggests oddsmakers may be slow to adjust to recent usage patterns, potentially overvaluing Otton's season-long averages. The 19.0% negative ROI for over bettors indicates this isn't random variance—there's a systematic overestimation of Otton's weekly floor. Tampa Bay's offensive philosophy under Todd Bowles has shown increased reliance on running backs in the passing game, further limiting Otton's target ceiling. The persistence of this trend across 33 games provides substantial evidence that books are consistently setting lines too high for a player whose usage fluctuates dramatically based on game script and opponent coverage schemes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 42.4% over rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge, especially with Otton currently on a six-game under streak. Target this bet when the line sits at 3.5 or higher, as the data suggests oddsmakers consistently overvalue his reception floor. The primary risk is a game script shift toward heavy passing volume if Tampa Bay falls behind early, but the historical data strongly supports continued under success.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Cade Otton's Receptions prop record all games?
Cade Otton has gone under his receptions prop in 19 of 33 games (57.6%) since September 2023, with overs hitting just 42.4% of the time. He's currently on a six-game under streak, his longest of the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Cade Otton Receptions all games?
Bet the under on Cade Otton receptions props. The 57.6% under rate and positive 9.9% ROI for under bettors creates a clear edge, especially with his current six-game under streak showing no signs of breaking.
What's Cade Otton's average Receptions all games?
Cade Otton averages 3.67 receptions per game against a typical line of 3.26, creating a +0.4 differential. However, this average is misleading as he fails to hit the over 57.6% of the time due to volatile usage patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cade Otton under bets when the line is set at 3.5 or higher, maximizing value from the consistent overestimation. The edge is strongest during his current under streak and in games where Tampa Bay projects to control pace.