Bryce Young has hit the under in 6 of 10 games (40% over rate) with a brutal -23.6% ROI on overs. His 193.7 yard average barely trails the 194.1 line, but the consistency of underperformance creates clear betting value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Bryce Young's passing volume limitations in his sophomore campaign. While his 193.7 yard average sits just 0.4 yards below the typical line, that small gap masks significant volatility issues that favor under bettors. The Panthers' offensive approach has consistently capped Young's ceiling, whether through conservative game scripts, rushing-heavy approaches, or simply the growing pains of a developing quarterback. The 40% over rate indicates books are still pricing Young based on potential rather than production, creating systematic value on unders. His recent two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of inconsistent passing volume. The -23.6% ROI on overs represents substantial losses for bettors backing his upside, while under backers have profited at +14.6%. This isn't just variance - it's a reflection of Carolina's offensive identity limiting Young's opportunities to exceed modest passing totals. The fact that his longest over streak matches his longest under streak (2 games each) shows he lacks the consistency to string together high-volume performances. Without dramatic scheme changes or improved game flow situations, this trend points toward continued value on Young's passing yard unders.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's 40% over rate and devastating -23.6% ROI on overs creates clear mathematical value on unders. The Panthers' conservative offensive approach and Young's development curve consistently limit his passing volume. Target unders when lines exceed 200 yards or in games where Carolina projects to control pace. Main risk is garbage time volume in blowout losses inflating totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 228.5 | 203.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 213.5 | 158.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 205.5 | 219.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 195.5 | 191.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 206.5 | 298.0 | +91.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 178.5 | 263.0 | +84.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 183.5 | 126.0 | -57.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 184.5 | 171.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 160.5 | 224.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 184.5 | 84.0 | -100.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Bryce Young has gone under his passing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 4-6-0 over/under record (40% over rate). Under bettors have profited significantly with +14.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Bryce Young's passing yards. His 40% over rate and -23.6% ROI on overs show clear value on unders, especially when lines exceed 200 yards or in controlled game scripts.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bryce Young averages 193.7 passing yards over his last 10 games, falling 0.4 yards short of his typical 194.1 line. This small but consistent gap creates systematic value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Young's passing yard unders when lines exceed 200 yards or when Carolina projects to control game flow. Avoid in potential shootouts or games where the Panthers face large deficits early.