Bryce Young's passing yards have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 25.9% overs across 27 games with a devastating -50.5% ROI on overs. Young averages 184.26 yards against a typical 196.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a quarterback consistently falling short of market expectations. Young's 184.26 yard average sits 12.2 yards below the standard line, creating a systematic edge that has persisted across nearly two full seasons. This isn't variance—it's structural. Carolina's offensive limitations, from a porous offensive line to limited receiving weapons, create a ceiling that books haven't fully adjusted for. Young's longest over streak reached just two games, while his longest under streak hit seven, showing the consistency of this trend. The 41.4% ROI on unders represents exceptional value in a market where most props hover around break-even. What makes this particularly compelling is the sample size—27 games provides statistical significance while the trend shows no signs of regression. Young's development as a quarterback hasn't translated to consistently higher yardage totals, suggesting the underlying factors remain intact. The Panthers' offensive system, pace of play, and game script tendencies all contribute to lower passing volumes than the market anticipates.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 74.1% under rate and 41.4% ROI create clear value, but regression risk exists as Young develops and Carolina's offense potentially improves. Target unders when the line sits above 190 yards, especially in games where Carolina faces strong defenses or projects as trailing significantly. The main risk is offensive improvement outpacing line adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 228.5 | 203.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 213.5 | 158.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 205.5 | 219.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 195.5 | 191.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 206.5 | 298.0 | +91.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 178.5 | 263.0 | +84.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 183.5 | 126.0 | -57.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 184.5 | 171.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 160.5 | 224.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 184.5 | 84.0 | -100.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 201.5 | 161.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 191.5 | 94.0 | -97.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 181.5 | 112.0 | -69.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 176.5 | 312.0 | +135.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 172.5 | 167.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Bryce Young has gone under his passing yards prop in 20 of 27 games (74.1%) with a 7-20-0 over/under record. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among active quarterbacks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing Yards all games?
Bet under on Bryce Young's passing yards props. The 74.1% under rate and 41.4% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines exceed 190 yards. Focus on games with defensive pressure or negative game scripts.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing Yards all games?
Bryce Young averages 184.26 passing yards per game across 27 contests. This sits 12.2 yards below the typical 196.5 line, creating consistent value for under bettors seeking reliable edges.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryce Young passing yards unders when lines exceed 190 yards and Carolina faces strong pass defenses. Games with negative game scripts or weather concerns provide additional under value opportunities.