Bryce Young has been crushing his passing touchdown props lately, hitting the over in 7 of his last 10 games for a remarkable 70% success rate. The young quarterback is averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game against lines typically set at 0.9, creating a consistent +0.3 edge. This trend strongly favors the over.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Bryce Young's touchdown production surge. Averaging 1.2 passing touchdowns per game while consistently facing lines around 0.9 represents a significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. This 33% differential suggests oddsmakers are still undervaluing Young's red zone efficiency and overall offensive development. The 70% over rate across 10 games provides substantial sample size credibility, especially when paired with the impressive +33.6% ROI on over bets. Young's progression as a second-year quarterback appears genuine rather than variance-driven, as evidenced by his current two-game over streak and a longest over run of four games. The consistency is particularly noteworthy – his longest under streak maxed out at just one game, indicating sustainable improvement rather than hot-and-cold volatility. Carolina's offensive evolution under new coordinator Dave Canales has clearly unlocked Young's touchdown potential, creating more red zone opportunities and better play-calling in scoring situations. The market adjustment appears slow, creating continued value for over backers who recognize this developmental leap.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Young's 1.2 touchdown average against 0.9 lines creates clear mathematical value, supported by a 70% over rate and strong ROI metrics. The trend appears sustainable given his developmental trajectory and improved offensive system. Primary risk involves potential market correction as books adjust lines higher, though current momentum suggests continued over value in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Bryce Young has gone over his passing touchdown props in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 70% over rate. His 7-3-0 record represents one of the strongest prop trends among young quarterbacks this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the over on Bryce Young's passing touchdown props. His 1.2 average against typical 0.9 lines creates clear value, backed by 70% over success and +33.6% ROI that indicates sustainable market inefficiency.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bryce Young averages 1.2 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, consistently beating the typical line of 0.9. This +0.3 differential represents a significant edge for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Young's touchdown props when lines remain at 0.9 or lower, particularly in home games or favorable matchups. The market hasn't fully adjusted to his improved red zone efficiency under the new offensive system.