Bryce Young has been a consistent under performer on passing touchdown props in divisional games, going just 3-7-0 (30.0% overs) while averaging 0.6 touchdowns against 0.8 lines. The -42.7% ROI on overs versus +33.6% on unders creates a clear edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Young's divisional struggles reflect the harsh reality of facing familiar defenses twice yearly who've studied his tendencies extensively. The 0.2 touchdown deficit per game versus his typical line isn't marginal—it represents a systematic pattern where NFC South defenses consistently limit his red zone efficiency. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates how divisional opponents successfully game-plan against Carolina's limited offensive weapons. The 30% over rate suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Young's divisional limitations, particularly given how these defenses prioritize stopping the pass in a division lacking elite rushing attacks. Young's mobility, while useful between the 20s, becomes less effective in compressed red zone spaces where divisional coordinators have schemed specific containment strategies. The sample size of 10 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the underperformance—with a recent streak continuing the pattern—indicates this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between Young's current skill set and the elevated defensive preparation he faces within the division.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders creates legitimate value, especially when Young faces defenses that have studied him extensively. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns or higher, as divisional familiarity consistently limits his red zone production. Primary risk is potential offensive improvement or favorable game script, but the pattern remains too strong to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing TDs prop record divisional games?
Young's passing touchdown prop record in divisional games stands at 3-7-0, hitting the over just 30.0% of the time. This poor over rate has generated a -42.7% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoyed +33.6% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing TDs divisional games?
Bet the under on Young's passing touchdown props in divisional matchups. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI provide clear value, especially when lines are set at 1.5 touchdowns or higher against familiar NFC South defenses.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing TDs divisional games?
Young averages 0.6 passing touchdowns in divisional games compared to typical lines around 0.8 touchdowns. This -0.2 differential per game represents consistent underperformance that creates systematic value on under bets in division matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Young's passing touchdown unders specifically in divisional games when the line reaches 1.5 touchdowns. These familiar defenses consistently limit his red zone efficiency through superior preparation and game-planning against Carolina's predictable offensive schemes.