Bryce Young's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.7% overs across 27 games with a brutal -22.2% ROI on overs versus +13.1% on unders. Young averages 0.85 passing touchdowns against a typical 0.94 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Bryce Young's touchdown production limitations in his NFL career. Averaging 0.85 passing touchdowns per game against lines typically set around 0.94, Young consistently falls short of market expectations by nearly a tenth of a touchdown per contest. This isn't random variance—it reflects systemic issues with Carolina's offensive infrastructure, Young's development curve, and the team's overall scoring efficiency. The -22.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how sharply the market has mispriced Young's touchdown upside, likely influenced by his draft pedigree rather than his actual NFL production. Young's touchdown struggles stem from Carolina's inconsistent offensive line play, limited receiving weapons, and a conservative game plan that often prioritizes ball security over aggressive downfield passing. The Panthers frequently find themselves in negative game scripts, but even when competitive, Young's touchdown rate remains suppressed by red zone inefficiency and a tendency toward shorter, safer throws. With 11 overs in 27 games, this represents one of the more reliable under trends in quarterback props, particularly given the sample size spans multiple seasons and coaching changes.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Young's 0.85 average against 0.94 lines creates a mathematical edge that the market hasn't corrected despite overwhelming evidence. The ideal spot is when lines sit at 1.5 touchdowns, where Young has historically struggled most. Main risk is a breakout performance against elite matchups, but Carolina's offensive limitations make this scenario unlikely enough to maintain aggressive under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bryce Young's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Bryce Young has gone over his passing touchdown prop in just 11 of 27 games (40.7% rate) since entering the NFL. This represents one of the most reliable under trends among starting quarterbacks with significant sample sizes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bryce Young Passing TDs all games?
Bet the under on Bryce Young's passing touchdown props. His 0.85 average versus typical 0.94 lines creates consistent value, supported by a +13.1% ROI on unders compared to -22.2% losses on overs.
What's Bryce Young's average Passing TDs all games?
Young averages 0.85 passing touchdowns per game across 27 NFL contests, falling 0.1 touchdowns short of the typical 0.94 line. This differential represents nearly a 10% edge for under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryce Young passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5, where his success rate drops significantly. Avoid betting during potential shootout games against weak defenses where variance increases.