Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop at home presents a compelling over opportunity, hitting 64.3% of the time with a 9-5-0 record. His 19.93-yard average crushes the typical 12.0 line by 7.9 yards, generating +22.7% ROI. Despite a recent three-game under streak, the long-term edge strongly favors the over.
Expert Analysis
Purdy's home rushing success stems from the 49ers' offensive structure and Levi's Stadium's favorable conditions. Kyle Shanahan's system frequently utilizes designed quarterback runs and scrambles that capitalize on Purdy's mobility, particularly when the pocket breaks down against aggressive pass rushes. The 7.9-yard differential between his average and the standard line suggests consistent market undervaluation of his rushing ability. His 64.3% over rate across 14 home games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with the longest over streak reaching nine games. The current three-game under streak appears to be negative variance rather than a fundamental shift, as Purdy's role in the offense hasn't changed significantly. Home field advantage plays a crucial role, as the 49ers' familiar surroundings and crowd support often lead to more aggressive play-calling and extended drives where Purdy's legs become a factor. The +22.7% ROI over 14 games represents substantial long-term profitability that transcends short-term fluctuations. Market makers may be slow to adjust to Purdy's rushing contributions, creating persistent value on the over.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 64.3% hit rate and +7.9 yard differential create genuine value despite the recent three-game under streak. Purdy's rushing yards benefit from Shanahan's system and home field familiarity at Levi's Stadium. The main risk is the current cold streak extending, but the long-term data strongly supports regression to the mean favoring overs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 16.5 | 11.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 17.5 | 56.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 14.5 | 27.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 33.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 7.5 | 48.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 14.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 7.5 | 14.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-21 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brock Purdy's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Purdy's rushing yards prop at home shows a 9-5-0 over/under record (64.3% overs) across 14 games from September 2023 to December 2024, generating +22.7% ROI on over bets with consistent market-beating performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brock Purdy Rushing Yards home games?
Bet the over on Purdy's rushing yards at home. The 64.3% hit rate and 7.9-yard average advantage over the typical line create genuine value, despite a recent three-game under streak that appears to be negative variance.
What's Brock Purdy's average Rushing Yards home games?
Purdy averages 19.93 rushing yards in home games, significantly exceeding the standard 12.0 line by 7.9 yards. This substantial differential indicates consistent market undervaluation of his mobility within Shanahan's offensive system at Levi's Stadium.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Purdy rushing yards overs in home games when the line sits at 12.0 or lower. The edge is strongest in familiar Levi's Stadium conditions where Shanahan's system maximizes designed runs and scrambles.